GDP growth in the last quarter of Biden’s administration was 2.4%; in the first quarter of Trump’s administration, it is – 0.3%.

Wednesday’s Commerce Department report showed that US consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, a solid gain but consumers might of been stocking up before Trump’s tariffs took effect.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (A measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose 2.3% from a year earlier, a lower annual inflation rate than in recent months but the March inflation data comes from a time before most of Trump’s tariffs took effect.

US and global stock markets went into a tizzy and still are — though since the 90-day hiatus was announced and trade deals are supposedly under negotiation they have recovered somewhat. The bond market too sold off dramatically after Trump’s announced high tariffs on imported goods on April 2.

Oil prices have collapsed because demand has cratered.

The macro situation? The US economy might be shrinking despite a blip from businesses and consumers stocking up before tariffs took effect. The US economy appears to have at least temporarily stalled.

China is canceling orders of key agricultural exports. It earlier this month halted a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork, the largest order since the pandemic in 2020. In the week ending April 17, China dropped its soybean orders to just 1,800 tons, down more than 97% from 72,800 tons bought the week before. China has switched to Brazil as its main soybean supplier.

The New York Post reports the US agricultural industry into a “full-blown crisis” as canceled orders from China are forcing farmers to lay off workers or shut down their businesses, according to a trade group.

Renowned economist Stephen Roach believes that we are heading for a ‘Stagflation for the Ages’, writing in Project Syndicate that The supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade currently underway. This fracturing, when coupled with US President Donald Trump’s attacks on central-bank independence and preference for a weaker dollar, threatens a prolonged period of stagflation.

The US decoupling from global trade networks, especially from China-centric and US/Canada/Mexico-centric supply chains, will reverse supply-chain efficiencies that reduced inflation by at least half a percentage point a year over the past decade. The reversal is likely to be permanent.

Also, the reshoring of manufacturing to the US will not be seamless, nor accomplished in the short time with projects taking years to plan and construct. Finding workers for mostly low paying jobs seems to be an issue.

An AI overview tells us; In February 2024, there were approximately 482,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the US. While this is down from the 513,000 job openings in January, it’s still a significant number. Some studies project that as many as 1.9 to 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could remain unfilled by 2030 if current trends continue. 

Stagflation and gold

Frank Holmes believes investors think gold is a classic fear trade that retail investors are still sorely underexposed to.

Your author believes they should be scared, economic signs point to a coming bout of stagflation.

A stagflationary environment is one where economic growth is decelerating and inflation remains high.

Is the US on a road leading to possible stagflation and recession? An official recession being called could be just 2 months away. Tariffs are thought to be, by most, inflationary. Decelerating growth should mean more job losses on top of Federal job loss programs underway. The US, and perhaps large parts of the global economy are on the road to stagflation.

Add in the tense geo-politics at play globally from Syria to North Korea, to Taiwan, to Iran, to Israel to the Ukraine and realize that’s as gold friendly as much as Basal III.

What are good investments in a stagflationary environment. The answer is Gold and Silver.

Gold and stagflation

Gold does well in stagflationary periods and outperforms equities during recessions.

The chart below by Sunshine Profits shows the gold price climbing during the stagflationary 1970s, surging from $100 per ounce in 1976 to around $650 in 1980, when CPI inflation topped out at 14%.

In fact, gold outperforms other asset classes during times of economic stagnation and higher prices. The table below shows that, of the four business cycle phases since 1973, stagflation is the most supportive of gold, and the worst for stocks, whose investors get squeezed by rising costs and falling revenues. Gold returned 32.2% during stagflation compared to 9.6% for US Treasury bonds and -11.6% for equities.

A 2023 Forbes article asks ‘How Does Gold Perform With Inflation, Stagflation And Recession’?

How’s this for performance? In six of the last eight recessions, gold outperformed the S&P 500 by 37% on average.

During the last major bout of inflation, 1973-79, inflation averaged about 8.8% a year, while gold rocked a 35% annual return. The article notes that elevated oil prices were the primary drivers of inflation and stagflation in the 1970s.

The 2021 inflation was different from the 1970s. It was caused by government spending, supply chain disruptions and rates held too low for too long, according to Forbes. Sound familiar to what’s happening today?

When inflation started rising in March 2021 gold was trading around $1,700/oz. Over subsequent months, both gold and inflation headed higher, with the CPI topping out at 9% in July 2022 and gold reaching $2,050 in March 2022.

Forbes notes Stagflation creates economic uncertainty because it challenges the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment. Historically, gold benefits in economic uncertainty.

Conclusion

Bad economic and geo-political news leads to precious metals being an attractive alternative to stocks.

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Blackwater’s crushing circuit has reached a 17,700-tonne-per-day (tpd) rate, achieving more than full design capacity over the past 30 days, Artemis said. The mill has reached about 15,300 tpd or 93% of capacity.

“We completed construction in an industry-leading 22 months, and the team achieved commercial production in a remarkable three months from commencement of milling operations,” Artemis CEO Steven Dean said in a release.

He added that the company will soon focus on potentially speeding up the proposed second stage expansion, which is expected to raise the mine’s average annual output to more than 500,000 gold-equivalent ounces.

Blackwater, located 450 km northeast of Vancouver, is the province’s first new gold mine since Newcrest’s – now Newmont (TSX: NGT; NYSE: NEM) – Brucejack opened in 2017.  Artemis’ production milestone coincides with recent historic high prices for gold, which touched $3,500.05 per oz. last week. The price has risen about 25% this year to date.

Company shares gained 8% to C$20.42 apiece on Friday at mid-day in Toronto, for a market capitalization of C$4.61 billion ($3.34bn).

Near-capacity tonnage

Mining in Blackwater’s open pit has delivered more than 90% of its planned tonnage. Both the 400-tonne and 600-tonne production excavators are fully deployed, Artemis said. Mined tonnes and grades based on grade control modeling are reconciling favourably to the resource model.

Since milling started at Blackwater in January, the company has produced about 30,000 oz. of gold. Artemis expects to produce 160,000 to 200,000 oz. at all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $670-$770 per oz., for the eight-month period until Dec. 31. Total forecast production for this year is 190,000-230,000 oz. of gold.

In the year’s second half, output is forecast at 130,000 to 160,000 oz. of gold at estimated AISC of $645-$725 per ounce. AISC are expected to be somewhat higher in the two months remaining in the second quarter because of continued ramp-up in production.

AISC estimates for the eight months to the end of the year include sustaining capital of about C$16 million. Artemis expects stage one deferred expenditures of C$60 million to C$75 million in the eight months to Dec. 31, including building such infrastructure as an air strip and more water treatment facilities.

Artemis also plans to spend an initial C$3 million for front-end engineering and design work for the proposed stage two expansion.

Throughput for stage one is forecast at 6 million tonnes a year with 93% gold recovery, according to a 2021 feasibility study.

The projects – which would supply copper, palladium and other minerals – have been granted FAST-41 status, a federal initiative launched in 2015 to streamline approvals of critical infrastructure.

The Trump administration last month had named an initial 10 projects to the list and said that more would be added in the future.

All of the projects are listed on a US federal website where their permitting progress can be publicly tracked, part of what the administration calls a push for greater transparency and faster permitting.

The latest 10 include a proposed copper and nickel mine in Minnesota from a joint venture of Glencore and Teck Resources; a New Mexico uranium project from Energy Fuels; expansion of a Montana palladium project from Sibanye Stillwater; an Alaskan silver project from Hecla; and a Georgia titanium dioxide project from Chemours.

South32’s Hermosa zinc-manganese project in Arizona was fast-tracked by former President Joe Biden, the first mine to receive the FAST-41 treatment.

President Donald Trump also last month ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all US critical minerals imports, a major escalation in his dispute with global trade partners and an attempt to pressure industry leader China.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

The poll of 29 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,065 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $2,756 predicted in a poll three months ago. The estimated price for 2026 rose to $3,000 from $2,700.

Spot gold prices have risen by a quarter so far in 2025, almost equalling the 27% increase recorded for the whole of 2024. Bullion, often seen as a store of value during uncertain times, has averaged $2,952 so far this year, according to LSEG data.

“Gold looks set for what can only be described as another epic year,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. “Like in the early 2000s, gold is seeing buying on price strength which can have the effect of feeding upon itself.”

Bullion broke above the $3,000 mark for the first time in mid-March and topped $3,500 last week as the trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, boosted safe-haven demand, on top of persistent central bank buying.

Although the gold price has since eased to $3,273, analysts expect it to remain supported by the wild swings in US tariff policies and what are likely to be protracted trade negotiations.

“Gold’s fortune will continue to depend on other markets’ misfortune,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Bullion will remain supported, according to Hansen, as long as the focus remains on de-dollarization and the impact of US tariffs on global growth and fiscal stability.

At the same time, analysts warned of a crowded trade, while the high prices are curbing jewellery sector demand.

“Price risks persist given the physical market is wavering and central bank flows – while positive – are slowing, while an unwinding of tariff risk and fading recession risk can stall gold’s safe-haven appeal,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

Silver, meanwhile, has underperformed gold with a rise of 12% so far this year, as it doesn’t benefit from central bank buying while investment demand has been dampened by growth worries. Half of total demand for silver comes from the industrial sector.

The poll forecast an average 2025 silver price of $33.10 per ounce, unchanged from the previous survey. It has averaged $32 so far this year.

Analysts lifted their 2026 silver price forecast to $34.58 from $33.45, expecting a structural market deficit and the global clean energy transition to provide support.

“Industrial demand is currently a little hampered by oversupply of solar cells but this should work its way through. Strengthening demand from autos and AI will also help to keep the market in a deficit of supply vs fabrication demand, which will widen in 2026,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.

(By Anmol Choubey, Kavya Balaraman and Polina Devitt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Kirsten Donovan)

The milestone was achieved seven months early with minimal investment by reactivating 12 km of workings acquired from First Majestic Silver (TSX, NYSE: AG). Mining kicked off at 50 tonnes per day and will rise to 150 tonnes per day by the end of December, replacing feed now sourced from Guitarra’s 500-tonne per day plant. Guitarra and Coloso are located about 200 km west of Mexico City.

“This marks another milestone event in the restart of the Guitarra Mine Complex,” COO Greg Liller said in a release.

Silver centre

Historically a major silver producer, Mexico produced 204.8 million oz. silver in 2023. That accounts for about 24.8% of the world’s silver output, according to the US Geological Survey. The country attracted around $5 billion in mining investments last year. Major companies are focusing on expansions due to stricter rules on concessions and water permits, though other companies have reported progress in securing some permits.

Fresnillo (LSE: FRES) and MAG Silver (TSX, NYSE-A: MAG) increased output at their Juanicipio joint venture in Zacatecas. Pan American Silver (TSX, NYSE: PAAS) is expanding La Colorada in Sonora. Coeur Mining (NYSE: CDE) finished a $1.7 billion  takeover of Silvercrest in February. Also, First Majestic bought Gatos Silver for $970 million in March.

Regulators have raised environmental standards: Sierra Madre secured dry-stack tailings and paste backfill permits in May last year. The permits got approved, even as government discussions about increasing royalties and a possible open-pit ban under President Claudia Sheinbaum took place.

Sierra Madre shares trading in Toronto added 3.5% to C$0.59 apiece, solidifying 12-month gains higher than 51%. It has a market capitalization of C$90.8 million.

Guitarra ramp-up

Grades at Coloso are about 1.7 times higher in silver and 1.2 times higher in gold compared to the Guitarra veins, Liller said. The widths of the veins range from less than 1 metre to over 2 metres. Ramp-up mining will thus use different methods and blasting techniques. This helps find the best mix of mining costs and grade dilution.

Coloso hosts 432,000 indicated tonnes grading 221 grams silver per tonne and 1.61 grams gold, compared with Guitarra’s 1.7 million indicated tonnes at 123 grams silver and 1.3 grams gold.

The company began Guitarra operations on the Jessica vein and at Joya Larga. They are to test mining and blasting methods to find the best cost-to-grade ratio.

Refining operations

Sierra Madre hired a metallurgist with significant flotation experiencewho is to work as the process plant superintendent for processing at Coloso.

“Their goal will be to determine the best ratio of Coloso to Guitarra mill feed material to achieve maximum economic benefit,” Liller added.

Guitarra’s test-mining program generated $3.9 million in revenues during the three months ended Dec. 31, while milling 38,464 dry tonnes at 84% gold and 79% silver recoveries. Full-year revenues reached $6.5 million and gross profit hit $1.36 million before Guitarra achieved commercial rates on Jan. 1.

PM and Liberal Party head Mark Carney, who’s leading in the polls, has pledged to approve resource projects within two years and broaden exploration tax credits as part of a plan to make Canada both an “energy superpower” and “the global supplier of choice for critical minerals.”

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has vowed to open a resource-focused project office with an even shorter time limit – one year – to get “shovels in the ground” as fast as possible.  He also says he’ll build long-discussed infrastructure for Ontario’s Ring of Fire region, a set of three new roads and power lines linking future mines with the southern road network. Even so, his platform is thin on details about mining.

“Both parties would unlock stronger growth via major infrastructure and resource development, but each differs in approach,” Scotiabank Economics Vice President Rebekah Young said in a report issued Friday. “A complicated jurisdictional landscape, compounded now by global uncertainties, means either party would have its work cut out to spur greater investment.”

Critical minerals and industrial metals have emerged as essential economic building blocks in recent years as the world gears up for the coming energy transition. In the United States, President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order to increase American critical mineral production to dent China’s dominance after launching a Section 232 probe on all critical mineral imports – a process that typically results in tariffs.

‘Energy superpower’ goal

“Making Canada an energy superpower starts with critical metals and minerals, vital components to build everything from solar panels to electric vehicles,” Carney said last week during a campaign stop in Vancouver. “The market for these minerals is currently dominated by China and Russia. That must change.”

In his first election campaign, Carney has pledged to “kick-start” the “clean energy supply chain” by investing in critical minerals, spurring private investment and supporting early-stage mining companies.

If elected, Carney is proposing to adopt “Buy Canada” standards for products such as steel and aluminum while putting an increased focus on feedstock for battery supply chain buildouts.

First and Last Mile

A key measure included in the 67-page Liberal platform is the creation of the First and Last Mile Fund, an investment vehicle that Carney says will connect critical mineral projects to supply chains by supporting on-site development, processing and refining capacity.

Carney also wants to broaden the Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit by including critical minerals necessary for defence, semiconductors, energy and clean technologies to the list of qualifying minerals.

A Liberal government would also expand eligible activities under Canadian exploration expenses to include the costs of engineering, economic and feasibility studies for critical minerals projects.

“All of these measures taken together will make Canada the global supplier of choice for critical metals and minerals,” Carney said.

Repealing obstructive laws

Poilievre, Carney’s main rival for the top job, has vowed to repeal various policies passed under former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau – including the Impact Assessment Act known as Bill C-69.

He calls Bill C-69 the “No More Development” law, saying it “makes it impossible to build the mines, pipelines and other major energy infrastructure Canada needs.” Removing it would trigger a boom in the country’s resource sector, he says.

“We will get big projects built again by repealing the Liberal anti-development laws and regulations that have cost us half a trillion dollars in lost investment over the last decade,” Poilievre said in a campaign document posted on his party’s website. “We’ll also work with Indigenous partners to process and sell our clean natural resources to get foreign countries off burning higher-emission fuels and fight climate change.”

Although the 30-page Conservative platform has a section on Canadian energy and resources, “mining” and “minerals” don’t appear at all in the document. The word “mines” is mentioned once.

If he becomes PM, Poilievre has vowed to accelerate priority resource projects and usher in “One and Done” approvals. He would create a single Rapid Resource Project Office to streamline all regulatory approvals into one application and environmental review, in cooperation with the provinces, with a target of six-month decisions and a one-year maximum timeline.

Fast-tracking projects

A key pledge for miners involves building the infrastructure project to Ontario’s Ring of Fire region, which is known for its vast potential but slow progress towards getting any mines built. A Conservative government would approve federal permits to harvest chromite, cobalt, nickel, copper and platinum in the area, Poilievre says.

In the Conservative leader’s view, these measures would give the Canadian economy a boost of several billion dollars, “allowing us to become less dependent on the Americans, while our allies overseas would no longer have to rely on hostile regimes for these metals, turning dollars for dictators into paycheques for our people.”

A recent look at 2021 survey data from APEX Geoscience found five samples with bonanza silver grades. It also identified six samples with high copper content from the 38-claim site in the southern Lemhi Range.

“The Great Western property hasn’t seen any modern-day exploration since the industry’s understanding of carbonate replacement deposits has vastly improved,” president and CEO Dean Besserer said in a Friday release.

Management wants to explore the potential for an unrecognized igneous source at depth, Besserer said.

Zeus’ project is one of several in the western state where various metals, especially silver have been mined for decades. Idaho’s west hosts the Silver Valley, where Idaho Strategic Resources’ (NYSE: IDR), Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) Bunker Hill Mining (CSE: BNKR), and Americas Gold and Silver (TSX: USA; NYSE-AM: USAS) all have producing operations.

Zeus shares opened the day up 8% at C$0.205 per share before dropping back to the prior-day close at C$0.195 in early afternoon trading Friday. It has a market capitalization of C$13.2 million.

Fresh samples

Eleven grab samples collected by Zeus this season returned six grading higher than 97 grams silver and four above 0.17% copper, including values of 1,155 grams silver and 0.52% copper.

The company plans a ground geophysical program this year to test for an igneous or porphyry source at depth. Zeus is to launch a 12,000-metre drill campaign with a C$6.6 million budget and fixed drilling rates to limit budget risk, it said.

The program aims to expand the central Leviathan porphyry. It will use fences spaced 200 meters apart to reach the Grade Creek and Southern Flats zones. Also, it will test ideas for new porphyry centres in the Eastern Block and Western Deeps. Drilling will be oriented northwest for the first time to improve consistency and hit rate in southeast-dipping mineralization, the company said.

A joint induced polarization and magnetotellurics survey starts on May 1 to expand deep geophysical coverage across the expanded land package.

Flagship asset

Zeus is looking for permits to drill at its main Cuddy Mountain project. Here, surveys of soil, rock and geophysics show an area of 9 sq km copper-molybdenum anomaly next to Hercules Metals’ (TSXV: BIG) Leviathan discovery in western Idaho.

Net profit rose to $1.09 billion, well above the $816 million estimate from analysts polled by LSEG, as copper and silver prices surged and the miner trimmed production costs.

Shares climbed around 2% in afternoon trading.

Copper production and sales were nearly flat from the year-ago quarter, with output from US unit Asarco slipping.

Prices for the red metal, however, rose 18% from a year ago while silver leaped some 38%.

That brought revenue for Grupo Mexico, which also operates sprawling freight railroads and an infrastructure division, up 10% to $4.20 billion in the quarter.

The company also touted trimmed production costs for copper and byproducts as adding an earnings boost.

Grupo Mexico, controlled by billionaire German Larrea, is one of the world’s largest copper producers with mines in Peru, the United States, Spain and its home base of Mexico.

The company could be at risk from the trade war breaking out between the United States and China, with copper prices slumping since the end of the first quarter.

“Although we maintain a very positive long-term outlook for copper, we believe an intense commercial war between the US and China will affect economic growth worldwide, consequently impacting copper demand,” mining head Leonardo Contreras said in the firm’s results call.

Beijing imposed 125% duties on US shipments earlier this month in response to US President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Copper was exempted from Trump’s sweeping tariffs in March, though analysts say import taxes on the metal could be coming as well.

Contreras declined to say how Grupo Mexico was planning to offset the impact of potential tariffs on copper shipped into the United States.

(By Kylie Madry, Natalia Siniawski and Rafael Escalera Montoto; Editing by Bill Berkrot and Chizu Nomiyama)

In a press release Tuesday, the Canadian gold miner said it will purchase approximately 23.5 million common shares of Thesis at C$1.03 a share for C$24.2 million. The issue price represents a 10% premium to the five-day volume-weighted average price of Thesis’ shares on the TSX Venture Exchange.

Thesis Gold traded at C$0.95 by noon ET, down 1.0% for the day, with a market capitalization of C$202.2 million. Earlier in the session, it had risen to a 52-week high of C$1.04.

“Centerra’s interest is a strong endorsement of the extraordinary potential of the Lawyers-Ranch project and the work our team has accomplished to date,” Thesis Gold CEO Ewan Webster said in the press release.

The Lawyers-Ranch project covers a 495-sq.-km land package within the Toodoggone mining district, which shares a similar geological history and potential mineral endowment to the prolific Golden Triangle to the west. The property hosts a former underground mine that operated between 1989-1992, during which it produced over 173,000 oz. of gold and 3.6 million oz. of silver.

The Vancouver-based company is currently advancing the project through a pre-feasibility study to build on the results from the preliminary economic assessment (PEA) from October 2024.

The PEA outlined a potential 14-year mine (open pit and underground) with annual gold-equivalent production of 215,000 oz. Its post-tax net present value (at 5% discount) is estimated at C$1.3 billion, with an internal rate of return of 35.2%. Initial capital cost of the project is about C$598 million.

The study used a mineral resource estimate of 82 million tonnes grading 1.11 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and 31.9 g/t silver in the measured and indicated category, plus another 12 million tonnes at 1.48 g/t gold and 20.9 g/t silver inferred.

In addition to the PFS, Thesis is also conducting key baseline work to initiate the project’s environmental assessment process and executing a summer exploration program to grow the Lawyers-Ranch resource.

Potential synergy

“Thesis’ recent preliminary economic assessment, resource update and drill results are very encouraging and demonstrate the potential of this highly prospective district,” stated Centerra’s CEO Paul Tomory.

“Given the proximity of our Kemess asset to the Lawyers-Ranch project, we see the potential for substantial synergies, including the ability to leverage existing infrastructure to unlock regional potential,” he added.

Centerra’s Kemess project, situated 45 km to the south of Lawyers-Ranch, is home to a former copper-gold mine that produced approximately 3 million oz. of gold and 800 million lb. of copper over a 12-year period until 2011.

Centerra acquired Kemess as part of its AuRico Metals takeover in late 2017.

Let’s start today’s article with a quote from Yahoo!Finance:

“According to the latest Bank of America fund managers survey published this week, nearly half of the fund managers surveyed (49%) see long gold, or bets that gold prices will rise, as the most crowded trade in the market right now. This marks the first time in two years that fund managers did not see the Magnificent Seven as Wall Street’s most crowded trade, according to the survey.”

Translation: this very likely is a price bubble.

Technically, it looks like the bubble is about to burst, and we would have likely seen the price collapse if it wasn’t for the fresh portion of chaos that we just got. Still, it seems that the US–China situation reached an extreme now (with both countries trying to influence other countries to not to do business with the other), and the next move from here is likely de-escalation. Remember how Trump was handling the situation / negotiations with North Korea many years ago? He moved to extreme tension and then to de-escalation.

The difference this time is that the economic impact from tariffs is going to last.

In other words, thanks to the likely stabilization, gold’s safe-haven appeal will be less important to investors, while the hit on the world economy (with biggest impact being on commodities) is likely to last. This creates a bearish environment for the precious metals sector (in particular for silver which can decline based on both reasons) and commodities.

The S&P 500 Index futures are down in today’s pre-market trading. Not significantly yet, but the move toward last week’s lows suggests that the decline will simply continue here.

We saw a sharp corrective rally (on which we profited), and some time passed after initial slide. In other words, we got not one but both things that prepare markets for trend’s continuation. The trend is down, so a decline here was to be expected. Today’s decline might be the first step in another bigger slide.

History repeating? April and silver’s seasonal memory

Also, speaking of time, do you remember at which time of the year did silver form its top in 2011? It was in late April.

And do you recall when did the decline in the precious metals and mining stocks accelerate in 2013? It was in mid-April.

While gold soared profoundly, silver moved up just a little. So, what we see now is a gold-only phenomenon, likely very emotional (and thus temporary; vulnerable) upswing.

A big slide in silver is the most likely outcome in my view. For anyone waiting on the sidelines with regard to a short position in silver (I mean trading capital; not one’s silver IRA) – today’s weak reaction serves as a confirmation that the short position remains very much justified from the risk to reward point of view, and that the potential for this trade is superb.

My previous comments on silver’s long-term chart remain up-to-date:

“Silver has multiple industrial uses, and if world trade is affected to a significant extent (and this seems like a sure bet now), then silver price is likely to suffer.

Please note that the white precious metal barely moved above its 2020 high in 2024 and 2025 and last year’s high was just a test of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level – nothing more. The retracement proved to be a very strong resistance, and despite gold’s strong leadership, silver failed to break higher.

Now it’s leading the way lower, and the best (or worst, depending on how you look at it) is the proximity of the rising, long-term support line. Once this line is broken, the following move could be substantial. This support held for a long time, so breaking it will be a very important technical development.

Moreover, when silver declined from its final top in 2012, it actually declined from the same levels (approximately) at which silver topped last year. It broke below the previous rising support line shortly thereafter, and that’s where the move below $20 started.

Will we see one soon?

Most likely – yes.

And you are prepared.”

USD index: triple support speaks bullish

Finally, let’s take a look at what’s going on in the USD Index, as that’s the key background information that will impact… Pretty much everything.

The USDX started this week with a decline, and while this might seem discouraging, I would like to point out three critical facts:

1. This decline took the USDX to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement based on the 2008 – 2022 rally, which provides VERY strong support. It was only somewhat below the same retracement but based on the 2020 – 2022 rally.

2. The breakdown below the 2020-2022 61.8% Fibonacci retracement was not confirmed.

3. The USD Index just reached its declining resistance line based on the 2022 and 2023 highs.

All three are very strong reasons for the USD Index to turn back up, and the fact that we have them together is truly exceptional (especially that the weekly RSI is now extremely undervalued).

This creates a very bullish outlook for the USD Index, which poses a significant danger to anyone being long precious metals here (from the trading point of view).

Gold could remain volatile (sentiment is still red-hot, people’s searches for gold and silver ira investment near me are still booming), but given silver’s reluctance to move to new highs here, it seems that the white metal is particularly vulnerable to a sell-off.

(By Przemyslaw Radomski)

Two weeks into the second quarter, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.36 trillion, up $79.7 billion so far in 2025.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies remains almost $400 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.

This snapshot was taken at the close of trading on 17 April and not at the start of Q2 as usual to avoid some of the market distortions brought on by the chaotic weeks following Trump’s on-again off-again tariffs.

This flatters the index to some extent as gold stocks rode the coattails of the record setting bullion price and almost all big names regained some ground after the severe sell-off during the first week of April.

Newcomers

The volatile trading saw the greatest number of new entries – six in all – in a quarter since MINING.COM started tracking the Top 50 six years ago. From $6.7 billion at the end of 2024, the lowest ranked entry must now be worth $8 billion.

Mining and metals arguably suffered some of the biggest swings and roundabouts as the economic effects of a trade war and the focus on critical minerals played havoc – exemplified by the volatility on copper markets.

The bellwether metal hit a record high in the US at the end of March, only to plunge more than 20% over the next week and a half and then make up a big chunk of those losses going into the long weekend.

Amid the hectic trading, copper producers and diversified companies with large base metal portfolios lost a combined $53 billion to April 17 and are now trading $205 billion below their collective peak end-Sep 2024 as the sector’s ranks thin.

Lundin Mining dropped out of the Top 50 during Q1 following another copper counter, Poland’s KGHM, which did not make the cut off in Q4 last year. Q1 was a mixed blessing for the Canadian mining empire with the copper producer making way for Lundin Gold, entering the Top 50 for the first time after doubling in value in USD terms to $10.1 billion in Toronto.

Huayou Cobalt’s inclusion proved to be short-lived while South32 failed to make the cut for the first time since being spun out of BHP a decade ago. The base metals sans copper producer sits at position 51 after being narrowly edged out by Shanjin International Gold, so the stock may well return if (and not necessarily when) profit-taking in gold and gold stocks starts to make sense.

Another notable mover of 2025 is Amman Mineral, the worst performer in the index which lost over $10 billion in value as reality about its piercing run since its debut in Jakarta early 2023 continues to set in. The Indonesian copper-gold company is now worth an eye-catching $20 billion less than its high point at the end of Q2 last year, even after investors ran up the stock more than 20% just in the last week.

Nothing counters gold

While the direction of the copper price over the last few months was almost impossible to judge, gold’s record breaking run looked inevitable. At $3,420 per ounce gold at the time of writing, the yellow metal has now finally also surpassed its 1980 peak in inflation-adjusted terms.

Unsurprisingly, precious metals counters dominate the best performer list and make up the majority of new entrants. Gold, silver and PGM miners and royalty companies now represent a third of the value of the Top 50. The strength in precious metals has also seen Canada overtake Australia for the first time in terms of the value of miners headquartered there.

At 22% of the index, the 13 Canadian companies collectively are worth a smidgen under $300 billion compared to $275 billion for the now eight Australian firms with the inclusion for the first time of Sydney-based gold stock Evolution Mining. In their current form Melbourne-based BHP and Rio Tinto have been the top two global mining stocks since the turn of the century, together worth $220 billion today.

The MINING.COM Top 50 tracks stock value in USD terms not share price gains on local exchange and many stocks in the ranking benefitted from strengthening currencies against the USD.

South Africa’s Harmony Gold tops the gainers after jumping 24 spots to enter the ranking at no 37 following a 117% advance since end-2024. Like Harmony, Goldfields also benefited from the strong rand against the greenback, lifting the Johannesburg-based company’s shares by 83% year to date.

Russia’s Polyus, which added $14.4 billion in Q1, was only beaten by the top two gold stocks Newmont and Agnico Eagle which added $18.6 billion and $19.9 billion year to date in market cap gains. The ruble has strengthened by 20% against the US dollar in 2025 and Norilsk Nickel, thanks to captive investors on the MCX, has maintained its good standing in the Top 50 despite sanctions and trading restrictions. Norilsk is still worth north of $20 billion but still a far cry from its peak position as the world’s number 5 most valuable mining company reached mid-2021.

London-listed Fresnillo returns to the index after years in the wilderness thanks to a 74% surge in value for the Mexican silver and gold miner, majority owned by Mexican industrial group Peñoles. Together with Southern Copper, owned by Grupo Mexico, the country now represents nearly 6% of the value of the Top 50.

Gold counters are likely to only increase in number and size over the rest of 2025. Kazatomprom dual-listed in London and Astana in 2018, and Uzbekistan is now readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer later this year.

Rare earth representation

China Northern Rare Earth is the only producer of the 17 elements in the ranking and despite the frenzy surrounding the sector as China tightens control. There are no obvious REE candidates that could join the Top 50 in short order.

MP Materials, which operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, has surged by 69% in value year to date but the Las Vegas-based company is still worth only $4.3 billion.

The company’s valuation peaked above $8 billion in March 2022, but the whole mining industry was riding high at the time and the high price ticket for entry at the time meant it fell just outside the ranking. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths have also come close in the past and is up 26% this year for a valuation of $5.3 billion.

Lithium down to a single stock

Lithium’s representation in the ranking is down from six companies to a single stock – Chile’s SQM languishing in position 42 and worth less than $10 billion – following the exit of China’s Tianqi and US-based Albemarle during the quarter, with the latter dropping by 38% in 2025.

The value destruction caused by the slump in lithium prices has been nothing short of astonishing. Lithium stocks in the index peaked in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion.

While Albemarle now worth $6.2 billion may well make a comeback (the longer term prospects for lithium demand remains bright), the absorption of Arcadium by Rio Tinto makes it unlikely that the Top 50 will see a rush of lithium stocks any time soon, a rebound of the commodity notwithstanding.

Zangge Mining, which does derive a good proportion of income from lithium, but is mostly a fertilizer producer, is bubbling under at number 53. The Chinese company may not stick around either – it’s the subject of takeover overtures by Zijing Mining, which also helps explain the 25% rise in the stock on the Shenzen exchange in USD terms.

Notes:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close April 17/18, 2025 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry, and how far upstream is the bulk of its revenue, before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or even warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec.

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialized financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

With other groups like Mexico’s Penoles where refining and chemicals make up a substantial part of the business where possible the Top 50 would include separately listed operating subsidiaries that are dedicated to mining. This is also why Southern Copper represents Grupo Mexico in the ranking.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology: email Frik Els at fels@mining.com with Top 50 in the subject line.

Two weeks into the second quarter, the MINING.COM TOP 50* ranking of the world’s most valuable miners had a combined market capitalization of $1.36 trillion, up $79.7 billion so far in 2025.

The total stock market valuation of the world’s biggest mining companies remains almost $400 billion below the peak hit in the second quarter of 2022.

This snapshot was taken at the close of trading on April 17 and not at the start of Q2 as usual to avoid some of the market distortions brought on by the chaotic weeks following Trump’s on-again off-again tariffs.

This flatters the index to some extent as gold stocks rode the coattails of the record setting bullion price and almost all big names regained some ground after the severe sell-off during the first week of April.

Newcomers

The volatile trading saw the greatest number of new entries – six in all – in a quarter since MINING.COM started tracking the Top 50 six years ago. From $6.7 billion at the end of 2024, the lowest ranked entry must now be worth $8 billion.

Mining and metals arguably suffered some of the biggest swings and roundabouts as the economic effects of a trade war and the focus on critical minerals played havoc – exemplified by the volatility on copper markets.

The bellwether metal hit a record high in the US at the end of March, only to plunge more than 20% over the next week and a half and then make up a big chunk of those losses going into the long weekend.

Amid the hectic trading, copper producers and diversified companies with large base metal portfolios lost a combined $53 billion to April 17 and are now trading $205 billion below their collective peak end-Sep 2024 as the sector’s ranks thin.

Lundin Mining dropped out of the Top 50 during Q1 following another copper counter, Poland’s KGHM, which did not make the cut off in Q4 last year. Q1 was a mixed blessing for the Canadian mining empire with the copper producer making way for Lundin Gold, entering the Top 50 for the first time after doubling in value in USD terms to $10.1 billion in Toronto.

Huayou Cobalt’s inclusion proved to be short-lived while South32 failed to make the cut for the first time since being spun out of BHP a decade ago. The base metals sans copper producer sits at position 51 after being narrowly edged out by Shanjin International Gold, so the stock may well return if (and not necessarily when) profit-taking in gold and gold stocks starts to make sense.

Another notable mover of 2025 is Amman Mineral, the worst performer in the index which lost over $10 billion in value as reality about its piercing run since its debut in Jakarta early 2023 continues to set in. The Indonesian copper-gold company is now worth an eye-catching $20 billion less than its high point at the end of Q2 last year, even after investors ran up the stock more than 20% just in the last week.

Nothing counters gold

While the direction of the copper price over the last few months was almost impossible to judge, gold’s record breaking run looked inevitable. At $3,420 per ounce gold at the time of writing, the yellow metal has now finally also surpassed its 1980 peak in inflation-adjusted terms.

Unsurprisingly, precious metals counters dominate the best performer list and make up the majority of new entrants. Gold, silver and PGM miners and royalty companies now represent a third of the value of the Top 50. The strength in precious metals has also seen Canada overtake Australia for the first time in terms of the value of miners headquartered there.

At 22% of the index, the 13 Canadian companies collectively are worth a smidgen under $300 billion compared to $275 billion for the now eight Australian firms with the inclusion for the first time of Sydney-based gold stock Evolution Mining. In their current form Melbourne-based BHP and Rio Tinto have been the top two global mining stocks since the turn of the century, together worth $220 billion today.

The MINING.COM Top 50 tracks stock value in USD terms not share price gains on local exchange and many stocks in the ranking benefitted from strengthening currencies against the USD.

South Africa’s Harmony Gold tops the gainers after jumping 24 spots to enter the ranking at no 37 following a 117% advance since end-2024. Like Harmony, Goldfields also benefited from the strong rand against the greenback, lifting the Johannesburg-based company’s shares by 83% year to date.

Russia’s Polyus, which added $14.4 billion in Q1, was only beaten by the top two gold stocks Newmont and Agnico Eagle which added $18.6 billion and $19.9 billion year to date in market cap gains. The ruble has strengthened by 20% against the US dollar in 2025 and Norilsk Nickel, thanks to captive investors on the MCX, has maintained its good standing in the Top 50 despite sanctions and trading restrictions. Norilsk is still worth north of $20 billion but still a far cry from its peak position as the world’s number 5 most valuable mining company reached mid-2021.

London-listed Fresnillo returns to the index after years in the wilderness thanks to a 74% surge in value for the Mexican silver and gold miner, majority owned by Mexican industrial group Peñoles. Together with Southern Copper, owned by Grupo Mexico, the country now represents nearly 6% of the value of the Top 50.

Gold counters are likely to only increase in number and size over the rest of 2025. Kazatomprom dual-listed in London and Astana in 2018, and Uzbekistan is now readying an IPO for Navoi Mining and Metallurgy Combinat – the world’s fourth largest gold mining company and significant uranium producer later this year.

Rare earth representation

China Northern Rare Earth is the only producer of the 17 elements in the ranking and despite the frenzy surrounding the sector as China tightens control. There are no obvious REE candidates that could join the Top 50 in short order.

MP Materials, which operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, has surged by 69% in value year to date but the Las Vegas-based company is still worth only $4.3 billion.

The company’s valuation peaked above $8 billion in March 2022, but the whole mining industry was riding high at the time and the high price ticket for entry at the time meant it fell just outside the ranking. Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths have also come close in the past and is up 26% this year for a valuation of $5.3 billion.

Lithium down to a single stock

Lithium’s representation in the ranking is down from six companies to a single stock – Chile’s SQM languishing in position 42 and worth less than $10 billion – following the exit of China’s Tianqi and US-based Albemarle during the quarter, with the latter dropping by 38% in 2025.

The value destruction caused by the slump in lithium prices has been nothing short of astonishing. Lithium stocks in the index peaked in the second quarter of 2022 with a combined value of nearly $120 billion.

While Albemarle now worth $6.2 billion may well make a comeback (the longer term prospects for lithium demand remains bright), the absorption of Arcadium by Rio Tinto makes it unlikely that the Top 50 will see a rush of lithium stocks any time soon, a rebound of the commodity notwithstanding.

Zangge Mining, which does derive a good proportion of income from lithium, but is mostly a fertilizer producer, is bubbling under at number 53. The Chinese company may not stick around either – it’s the subject of takeover overtures by Zijing Mining, which also helps explain the 25% rise in the stock on the Shenzen exchange in USD terms.

Notes:

Source: MINING.COM, stock exchange data, company reports. Share data from primary-listed exchange at close April 17/18, 2025 close of trading converted to US$ where applicable. Percentage change based on US$ market cap difference, not share price change in local currency.

As with any ranking, criteria for inclusion are contentious. We decided to exclude unlisted and state-owned enterprises at the outset due to a lack of information. That, of course, excludes giants like Chile’s Codelco, Uzbekistan’s Navoi Mining (the gold and uranium giant may list later this year), Eurochem, a major potash firm, and a number of entities in China and developing countries around the world.

Another central criterion was the depth of involvement in the industry, and how far upstream is the bulk of its revenue, before an enterprise can rightfully be called a mining company.

For instance, should smelter companies or commodity traders that own minority stakes in mining assets be included, especially if these investments have no operational component or even warrant a seat on the board?

This is a common structure in Asia and excluding these types of companies removed well-known names like Japan’s Marubeni and Mitsui, Korea Zinc and Chile’s Copec.

Levels of operational or strategic involvement and size of shareholding were other central considerations. Do streaming and royalty companies that receive metals from mining operations without shareholding qualify or are they just specialized financing vehicles? We included Franco Nevada, Royal Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals on the basis of their deep involvement in the industry.

Vertically integrated concerns like Alcoa and energy companies such as Shenhua Energy or Bayan Resources where power, ports and railways make up a large portion of revenues pose a problem. The revenue mix also tends to change alongside volatile coal prices. Same goes for battery makers like China’s CATL which is increasingly moving upstream, but where mining will continue to represent a small portion of its valuation.

Another consideration is diversified companies such as Anglo American with separately listed majority-owned subsidiaries. We’ve included Angloplat in the ranking but excluded Kumba Iron Ore in which Anglo has a 70% stake to avoid double counting. Similarly we excluded Hindustan Zinc which is listed separately but majority owned by Vedanta.

With other groups like Mexico’s Penoles where refining and chemicals make up a substantial part of the business where possible the Top 50 would include separately listed operating subsidiaries that are dedicated to mining. This is also why Southern Copper represents Grupo Mexico in the ranking.

Many steelmakers own and often operate iron ore and other metal mines, but in the interest of balance and diversity we excluded the steel industry, and with that many companies that have substantial mining assets including giants like ArcelorMittal, Magnitogorsk, Ternium, Baosteel and many others.

Head office refers to operational headquarters wherever applicable, for example BHP and Rio Tinto are shown as Melbourne, Australia, but Antofagasta is the exception that proves the rule. We consider the company’s HQ to be in London, where it has been listed since the late 1800s.

Please let us know of any errors, omissions, deletions or additions to the ranking or suggest a different methodology: email Frik Els at fels@mining.com with Top 50 in the subject line.

The projects – which would supply copper, antimony and other minerals – have been granted FAST-41 status, a federal initiative launched in 2015 to streamline approvals of critical infrastructure.

The White House said it will add more projects.

The initial 10 are listed on a US federal website where their permitting progress can be publicly tracked, part of what the Trump administration calls a push for greater transparency and faster permitting.

“This transparency leads to greater accountability, ensuring a more efficient process,” the White House said in a statement.

The move boosts a proposed Idaho antimony and gold mine from Perpetua Resources, a proposed Arizona copper mine from Rio Tinto, a proposed Montana copper and silver mine from Hecla Mining, expansion of Albemarle’s Nevada lithium mine, an Arkansas direct lithium extraction project from Standard Lithium, and an Alabama metallurgical coal project from Warrior Met Coal, among others. Metallurgical coal is used to make steel.

Perpetua said it was “honored by this selection … which validates the urgency and importance of our project for America’s economic and national security.”

Rio said it believes its Resolution copper project in Arizona “is vital to securing America’s energy future and infrastructure needs with a domestic supply of copper.”

Albemarle said it looks “forward to further engaging with the administration as it seeks to advance a US lithium supply chain.”

Standard Lithium and Warrior were not immediately available to comment.

South32’s Hermosa zinc-manganese project in Arizona was fast-tracked by former President Joe Biden, the first mine to receive the FAST-41 treatment.

Trump earlier this week ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all US critical minerals imports, a major escalation in his dispute with global trade partners and an attempt to pressure industry leader China.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Chris Reese)

Silver, which is used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels, as well as an investment, faces the fifth year of a structural market deficit.

Total industrial demand for silver is expected to be steady in 2025 after reaching a record high of 680.5 million ounces in 2024, while jewellery and silverware demand will fall, according to the annual report, produced for the Silver Institute by consultancy Metals Focus.

Demand for silver coins and bars will rise 7% this year after falling by 22% in 2024 to a five-year low of 190.9 million ounces due to major declines across all Western markets.

The steepest drop of 46% in this category happened in the United States due to profit-taking at higher prices, market saturation, and investors’ reaction to Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election in November, the association said.

Spot silver prices are up 12% so far this year after rising 21.5% in 2024. They are supported by the gold price rally, driven mainly by uncertainty brought by Trump’s tariffs, which boosted gold’s safe-haven appeal.

“The impact of US tariffs will be a key risk to silver demand this year,” the report said.

Due to silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal, its investment demand has faced conflicting forces so far in 2025. While recessionary fears and geopolitical tensions support portfolio diversification, a weakening global economic outlook worsens industrial demand prospects, the association said.

Industrial, jewellery, and silverware demand will come under further pressure in case of an extended period of elevated tariffs, or a further escalation of global trade wars disrupting global supply chains and affecting global economic growth, it added.

Silver supply & demand* (million oz.)

(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

Durrett spoke about his strong conviction in gold stocks’ future value in the latest episode of the CrashLabs podcast hosted by EarthLabs Inc. executive chairman and founder Denis Laviolette.

In the interview, Durrett highlights that most analysts focus too much on present metrics, whereas he values companies based on projected gold and silver prices, future production, and cash flow — using $4,000 gold and $100 silver as his base case.

“You’re projecting what that price will be,” he said. “And so you’re saying when the market collapses or when the bond market implodes, then you’re going to see what type of functional prices are you using now,” referring to the story arc on both gold and silver.

A personal recommendation by Canadian billionaire investor Eric Sprott on the show, Durrett has been investing in the gold mining space since 2004 and started the website goldstockdata.com to track these stocks.

Durrett describes his approach as a “once-in-a-lifetime trade,” driven by the belief that the US bond market is headed for collapse, which would trigger a major bull market in precious metals.

This future-orientated belief means he would avoid short-term investing in volatile miners, instead targeting undervalued producers with significant growth potential — specifically seeking what he calls “five-baggers” and ideally “ten-baggers.”

He also prefers producers over explorers and developers because of their multiple growth levers (organic growth, exploration and acquisitions) and cash flow generation.

All five holes drilled in the past three months intersected significant disseminated mineralization within the volume of the company’s 2024 resource, CEO Robert Wares said in a statement Monday. New mineralization was also added at depth well below the base of the 2024 estimate.

Osisko is working to expand the Gaspé copper system’s resource with a view to potentially reopening the former Noranda mine in Murdochville, about 825 km northeast of Montreal. It’s targeting permits and construction by the early 2030s, with initial capital spending estimated at about C$1.8 billion.

“Today’s results advance two of Osisko’s stated goals for the 2025 drill campaign: conversion of its large-scale resource to measured and indicated, and expansion at depth and to the south,” National Bank Financial mining analyst Rabi Nizami said in a note Monday. He calculates an average grade and length of 0.4% copper-equivalent over 109 metres on all mineralized intercepts in Monday’s release.

The project is “a re-emerging Canadian copper asset with scale, infrastructure and a clear path to redevelopment,” he added.

Osisko jumped 6.6% to C$0.41 in early afternoon trading in Toronto. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$247 million.

2024 model

Four of the five holes were completed drilling within the limits of the 2024 model, Osisko said.

That estimate, released in November, included indicated pit-constrained resources of 824 million tonnes grading 0.27% copper, 0.015% molybdenum and 1.74 grams per tonne silver, and inferred resources of 670 million tonnes grading 0.3% copper, 0.02% molybdenum and 1.37 grams silver.

Drill hole 30-1059 intersected 300 metres grading 0.39% copper and 3.17 grams silver from 8 metres downhole, Osisko said Monday. It’s within the 2024 resource model where there was limited historical data.

Hole 30-1060 intersected 220.5 metres grading 0.29% copper and 2.09 grams silver within the 2024 model, as well as 211 metres grading 0.42% copper and 2.27 grams silver at depth below the 2024 model. Mineralization was extended to a depth of 598 metres.

A fifth target, Hole 30-0947, is a previously un-assayed historical hole. Its drill results yielded five significant intersections, including 82 metres grading 0.31% copper and 2.55 grams of silver from 229-metre depth. This indicates that the deposit is open to the south, Osisko said.

All drill holes were drilled sub-vertically into the Gaspé copper altered calcareous stratigraphy that dips 20 to 25 degrees to the north.

Fully funded

The drilling campaign, which is fully funded, began in February.

“This is an excellent start to the 2025 drill program, and we look forward to a regular flow of results from our 110,000-metre program as we confirm our large existing copper resource, and aim to expand it at depth, to the south and to the west,” Wares said Monday.

Montreal-based Osisko acquired full interest in the project in July 2023 from Glencore (LSE: GLEN).

“We expect results from within the pit shell will tighten drill spacing and be helpful in reducing strip and upgrading resources ahead of economic studies, while extensions below the resource and to the south already demonstrate significant expansion potential to be uncovered” through the large-scale drilling campaign,” Nizami said.

The move follows the submission in January of an Environmental Impact Statement (DIA) for the project, which sits between the company’s Centinela and Antucoya operations. This proximity could create synergies with existing infrastructure and processing facilities, the largest pure-play copper miner listed in London said.

If regulators approve the DIA, Antofagasta will move ahead with surface and underground exploration to better define the deposit. The work will include over 700 drill holes, infill drilling to improve geological modelling, and construction of a horizontal tunnel reaching 300 metres deep.

As part of the environmental assessment process, Antofagasta will conduct baseline studies to protect nearby ecosystems, monitor groundwater, carry out archaeological surveys, and promote local employment and procurement.

Cachorro is located in the western Atacama Desert at an elevation of 1,500 metres, 100 km north-east of the city of Antofagasta. It is also situated 1,100 km north of the capital, Santiago. Since exploration began in 2017, Antofagasta has outlined a mineral resource of 255 million tonnes grading 1.26% copper, with silver as a by-product at 4 grams per tonne.

S&P Global Market Intelligence lists Cachorro as one of the largest greenfield copper discoveries of the past decade and one of the most significant manto-type deposits in Chile’s coastal belt.

The sale represents “a prudent exit that optimizes value” given the increasingly challenging business climate in Burkina Faso, Fortuna CEO Jorge Ganoza said in a statement Friday. The Yaramoko mine, the company’s main asset in the country, has about one year remaining on its reserves.

Burkina Faso is among countries in West Africa that have seen juntas assume control in recent years to fight militant Islamists. They have also sought to revise mining codes to squeeze more out of foreign miners.

Exiting Burkina Faso “improves the (company’s) jurisdiction profile,” Mohamed Sidibé, an analyst at National Bank Financial in Toronto, said in a note Friday. “In our view, the transaction allows a realization of value at an attractive multiple relative to recent transactions in West Africa and avoids closure liabilities of $20 million at the mine.”

Fortuna’s shares hit a 52-week high of C$9.18 Friday in Toronto before retreating to C$8.99 apiece in afternoon trading. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$2.8 billion.

Stronger balance sheet

Fortuna acquired Yaramoko as part of its $884 million purchase of Roxgold back in 2021. The mine, located in the Houndé greenstone belt of Burkina Faso, consists of two underground deposits that hold about 150,000 oz. in gold reserves. Its production last year was 116,200 ounces.

Vancouver-based Fortuna currently operates in three other countries: Argentina, Côte d’Ivoire and Peru. Its biggest by annual gold production is the Séguéla mine in Côte d’Ivoire, which came online two years ago, followed by Yaramoko. Earlier this year, the precious metals miner sold its non-core San Jose mine in Mexico for $6 million, also to a private local company.

Fortuna will receive a much larger payout for the Burkina Faso assets, including $70 million upon closing the deal with Soleil, plus a further $57.5 million in cash dividends. The company also has the right to receive up to $53 million of value-added tax receivables upon the completion of certain conditions.

“We believe that Soleil, as a private local company, is well positioned to continue operations at the Yaramoko mine to the benefit of employees and local stakeholders,” Ganoza said. Soleil currently operates three mines, holds exploration permits and owns a drilling company, all in Burkina Faso.

Fortuna is coming off a record year of gold-equivalent production in 2024 with about 370,000 oz. of gold and 3.72 million oz. of silver, but is expecting a 7%-17% decline this year after selling the San Jose mine in January.

The added liquidity will help Fortuna strengthen its balance sheet, invest in high-value exploration projects and “opportunistic” acquisitions, Sidibé said. Targeted jurisdictions include coastal countries in West Africa as well as North and South American countries such as Argentina, Guyana, Mexico and Peru, he said.

Cobre Panama has now been sitting idle for 18 months, ordered to shut down by a supreme court ruling following months of protests that rocked the Central American nation.

The massive First Quantum Minerals mine, which entered production in 2019 is an increasingly rare phenomenon in copper mining. The mine’s global porphyry peers in terms of output have histories often dating back to the 19th century.

One of the largest copper mines to come on line in decades, it contributed 1.5% of the world’s output. To put that in perspective that’s considerably more than Venezuela’s total share of global oil production.

Brass monkey

One of my more otherworldly experiences as a veteran of the occasional mine tour was walking Cobre Panama.

I could describe the scene at the complex 120 km west of Panama City as frozen in time, but even after a couple of minutes in the jungle of central America, freezing seems the remotest of possibilities.

The quiet of the place after the helicopter blades stop whirring catches you first.

Especially considering you’re surrounded by the heaviest of heavy industry and primed, through so many safety debriefs, to listen out for a blasting siren or enjoy the mood music of giant beeping trucks.

Instead of a deafening din from a safe distance, I was able to peer into the bowels of a giant mill with steel balls lying idly at the bottom as if on a brass monkey.

Instead of sucking power equivalent to a fifth of the country’s electricity from the onsite power plant, the steel frame of the processing plant was beginning to show signs of rust in the damp jungle and the salty Caribbean sea air.

Nearby, a day and a half’s ore was heaped high, baking in the sun at the end of a conveyor belt that hasn’t carried any rock from the more than three billion tonne deposit since October 2023.

$10 billion, 100 million

The orebody is also rich in gold, silver and molybdenum – all trading near historic highs. Franco Nevada, which stumped up $1.4 billion for a precious metal stream with 80% at fixed prices, must’ve been the only bullion boardroom watching the $3,000 crossover with mixed emotions.

Cobre Panama would’ve become a 100 million tonnes a year operation in 2024, placing it near the top of the world’s copper throughput ranking. With more than a hint of bitterness (but also pride in the work done), the mine manager explains the mine had just hit record production numbers the month before the shutdown.

Looking out over the main pit, already well below sea level after mountains of saprolite were stripped (the worst kind of stripping I’m told), a lonely shovel sits idle next to a large pool of the bluest water – a striking reminder of the riches that are not being tapped.

Minutes drive away from the processing plant row upon row of dozers, shovels and trucks are lined up seemingly ready to fall in behind our tour bus as if to join a funeral procession or like a defeated team leaving a championship stadium.

A quip that the rock-strewn boneyard would make the perfect location for the next sci-fi blockbuster – or the ultimate paintball course – is met with a wry smile.

A handful of employees are working on a truck doing what can be done to prepare for a restart – a prospect that still seems far away, yet so close.

FQM is spending around $15 million a month on care and maintenance or in FQM’s terms Preservation and Safe Management of its $10 billion investment. I decide to never use the word mothballing to describe these situations again.

Black mirrors

Less than a third of the workforce remains on site and according to mine management another set of “difficult decisions” are drawing closer as the months continue to flip over.

A year and half is a long time for a skilled copper miner to stand back and stand by when activity surrounding the metal has reached fever pitch. Recruiting thousands of workers to the site would be one of the trickier aspects of a reopening, according to Cobre.

A forlorn parking lot, floors filled with black mirror workstations and gloomy meeting rooms (but thankfully working aircon) in the main office building surrounded by a teeming forest is further testimony to that.

Looking out through the thick green from the boardroom window I fully expect a mantled howler could swing by, something we’re told is not that an uncommon sight.

If there was a ‘do not feed the animals’ sign I missed it. Slipping out the sleek modernist building for a smoke, an idea for Severance: Jungle Edition comes to mind, but that’s probably just the addling heat talking.

A backlog of thousands of contract orders worth in the tens of millions is another pile Cobre’s management needs to process – best case from green light to red metal is now six months but every inactive month stretches out the ramp up period further.

Gravity falls

The 25km road along the slurry pipe to the power station and port (blockaded for weeks during sometimes violent clashes which at one point forced Cobre to helicopter in bottled water) crisscrossed by wildlife corridors is mostly quiet except for another tour bus.

We catch up with them next to a stream near the tailings facility with a poster board helpfully explaining to visitors that, no, Cobre Panama does not drain water from the canal (60km as the harpy eagle flies), one of the more risible accusations leveled at the mine by activists.

Nor does it use mercury, sulphuric acid or cyanide, popular scare words thrown around by the environment NGOs, labour unions and student protestors that exploited growing anger among Panamanians about the country’s rulers. The mine’s flotation circuits simply do not require these chemicals to produce concentrate, just gravity and billions of dollars.

Cause celeb

Science was, surprise, not sufficient to prevent Greta Thunberg and Leonardo DiCaprio from entering the fray with slick Instagram posts produced by outfits like Re:Wild (latest campaign: re:wild your fridge!) in the final months before the shutdown.

Perhaps a quick helicopter ride from Panama City these climate crusaders would’ve seen for themselves how the canopy noticeably thickens the closer you get to the mine as clear cutting for cattle grazing – some of it clearly fresh – turns to jungle.

Perhaps that would’ve allowed celebrities following events from thousands of kilometres away to have a more balanced view of the issues surrounding the mine like how it provides alternatives to subsistence farming and small scale fishing in Panama’s poorer hinterland. Perhaps not.

The tailings facility was also said to be a mortal danger to both man and beast in an interim report rushed out by yet another NGO eager to ride the coattails of Thunberg and Dicaprio (they have long moved on of course: Gaza and bauxite mining in Western Australia respectively).

The NGO’s December 2024 “preliminary comments” are based on Cobre’s semi-annual submission to Panama’s environment minister. The report opens with complaints about the reams of data, and the too many tables and appendices provided by the mine and concludes that collapse is imminent. No site visit was conducted.

Totally understandable, this NGO’s team is mostly based in Oregon and I personally do not recommend boarding red-eyes with zone 5 tickets and 3am layovers in airport terminals under construction if you have to get to the Panama City from the Pacific Northwest on a budget. Pro tip: do avoid George Bush Intercontinental.

Cobre Panama did not drown me in paperwork before visiting the ponds and my own preliminary comments are that the tailings wall is not in imminent danger of collapse.

FQM is conducting a trial to make bricks and is considering exporting the pulverized rock as building or beach sand. Having run my hand through the fine powder and seeing the state of Panama City’s beaches. I suggest the latter.

Shovel ready

At the port 120,000 tonnes of ready-to-go copper concentrate still awaits shipping. Cobre Panama’s environment officer says he could find no studies to help with monitoring and preserving the mounds for this long – it is simply a situation no other mine has had to face (and must pray it never does). The 37% copper remains unmarred.

While the future of the mine remains uncertain, desperate local communities are increasingly resorting to informal mining. I got to see this first hand during a visit to a small tourism operator impacted by the closure (water buffalo rides, canoe trips, fishing – all quiet).

While talking to the owner, who indeed looks as Panamanian as a picture from a tourism brochure, not far from the mine a family appears on the river bank carrying shovels.

The makeup of the group, weary after what looked like a day’s work, surprised even the local public relations coordinator and appeared to comprise three generations of women with the youngest barely school age (and clearly not learning that day). Later, while admiring a buffalo’s late arrival, two more families trundle by.

They do not have the looks of people who struck gold that day. But perhaps they are luckier than others in the surrounding villages – organized crime groups from Russia and China have stepped into the breach and infiltrated unauthorized mining in the area.

Perhaps the irony won’t be lost on the Panamanian powers that be much longer.

Face value

Thousands of Panamanians have now seen the project up close and thousands more have been exposed to Cobre Panama through the #CobreConnecta program.

The outreach runs the gamut from meetings with lower-level government and trade union officials to student encounters and mobile exhibits in glitzy Panama City malls complete with VR headsets and cartoon AI Avatars that can answer children’s questions.

In late March FQM was forced to stop all tours of the mine because the Panamanian government believes “public visits may affect the impartiality of any analysis of the Cobre site”.

It’s a stunning admission that in person exposure may leave citizens with different assessments than politicians.

Concrete jungle

Back in Panama City, in a meeting with several members of the country’s business chamber more than once the passion, red and hot-bloodedness of the Panamanian people and its politics are evoked.

The facts of the economic impact presented by the National Council of Private Companies, however, are cold and hard.

Some 54,000 direct and indirect jobs lost, 75% of export earnings gone, credit rating downgrades (junk as of last month according to Fitch) and ballooning budget deficits.

At full tilt the mine contributed more to state finances than the canal, itself under stress due to drought. According to the IMF, Cobre’s fiscal contribution totalled $1.8 billion in 2023 through wages, social security payments, taxes, and domestic procurement.

The fact that the mine contributed 5% of Panama’s GDP is well known by now, but perhaps does not convey how a shuttered Cobre Panama has a greater effect on the nation as halting all building would have on the US (the industry represents 4% of US GDP).

Long covid

Irrational economic decisions by nation-states is not an infrequent global phenomenon.

Germany strangling its proud industries due to high energy costs while at the same time closing down nuclear power plants comes to mind. Canada suddenly rediscovering pipelines faced with Trump tariffs after cancelling or suspending oil and gas projects worth an eye-watering $570 billion in the last decade is another. And indeed, those Trump tariffs.

But the closure of Cobre Panama must rank near the top of policy failures and political self-harm, particularly in a country that can so ill afford it.

Cobre Panama was the lightning rod for discontented citizens in a country that to this day is feeling the effects of the Panama Papers leak that severely damaged its banking sector followed not long after by the pandemic. Panama’s economy contracted by 18% in 2020, one of the world’s worst hit countries.

The protests also happened in the early days of an election cycle that handed the dominant force in Panamanian politics for the last 40 years a defeat unprecedented in scale and José Raúl Mulino, a veteran politician and lawyer, the presidency.

Still, how did Panama get to such a ruinous impasse? To an outsider the region’s politics remain inscrutable. Even the journalists who live and work there I asked for answers could only drill down so far.

Concentrating minds

Things are finally starting to move.

Panama has now authorized the shipment of the copper concentrate worth $400 million at today’s prices (depending on the day). The cargo is legally owned by FQM, but the government expects “compensation” once the metal moves.

At the end of March, FQM said it is dropping one of its arbitration cases against Panama and suspending another. Franco Nevada maintains its preferred route is talks with the government ahead of its own hearings set for October 2026.

Mulino’s has maintained all along that his controversial social security reforms (made more urgent by the worsening fiscal situation) are a prerequisite for reopening discussions over the mine. That legislation, which has also brought Panamanians out on the streets, has now been passed.

Law 407 of 2023, a de facto ban on all metal mining and exploration in the country, must still be repealed but given the speed with which Law 406 was overturned under political pressure, it may present less of a constitutional obstacle.

FQM representatives quietly admit that the $375 million guaranteed annual royalty agreement signed into law in October 2023 – Law 406 – and tossed out barely a month later is probably just the floor in future negotiations.

That figure was arrived at during protracted negotiations that included mandated months-long work stoppages at the mine so FQM would be under no illusions about what hardball tactics they will be up against. And that may include playing off investors against each other in an industry with no lack of opportunists.

The earth moves

The stormy seas of world trade and the shifting sands of global mining may well be the decisive factor that brings this strange chapter for the copper industry to a close.

The Trump administration has moved quickly to bring Panama fully back under the US sphere of control, strong arming the country to replace the Chinese company running the ports with US investment firm BlackRock.

The US Defense Secretary was in the entrepôt this week for a security summit and the country’s comptroller took the opportunity to accuse CK Hutchison of financial irregularities and demand $1.2 billion for the state coffers even as the Hong Kong company’s exit is being negotiated.

What’s more, critical minerals have now entered the popular consciousness, and as was on clear display with Ukraine, Trump will go to any lengths to procure them.

In November, copper was officially designated as critical with the passing of the US Critical Mineral Consistency Act of 2024.

Not that Trump has given any indication that he needs Congress to knock heads together when there is a deal to be done.

Transfer from Panama City to Cobre Panama was provided by First Quantum Minerals

Silver is currently trading at $30.25 per ounce.

“We think silver prices below $30/oz are unlikely to last over the next 3–6 months,” the Swiss bank said in a note to clients.

UBS reaffirmed its forecast that silver could trade as high as $38 per ounce in the second half of this year.

The bank attributes the recent dip in silver prices to a broader “risk-off” sentiment in global markets, driven largely by US President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which have triggered a significant stock market correction.

However, UBS expects the decline in silver prices to be temporary and “unlikely to be of a similar magnitude” to the drop seen during the covid-19 pandemic.

The bank also noted that continued investor demand and the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve are positive indicators that should support higher silver prices in the coming months.

A weaker U.S. dollar is also expected to lower the opportunity cost of holding silver, further boosting its appeal.

Almaden Minerals (TSX: AMM; NYSE-AM: AAU) filed a legal claim for $1.06 billion in damages against the government in late March while Silver Bull Resources (TSX: SVB) is seeking $408 million in a separate case. Mexico raised its special mining duty on Jan. 1 to 8.5% from 7.5% and the extraordinary mining duty to 1% from 0.5%.

The country is important for mining as the world’s largest silver producer and any efforts to rebound from the policies of previous president Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (Amlo) are notable. The country’s mining chamber, Camimex, says the government could deter more than $6.9 billion in investments over the next two years. But Megaw sees some progress.

“The biggest change is we’re seeing permits being granted. They were taking a long time under Amlo and now they’re moving ahead,” said Megaw, co-founder of MAG Silver (TSX, NYSE: MAG) and Minaurum Gold (TSXV: MGG). “Sheinbaum is simply quietly doing the things that are supposed to be done instead of noisily doing the things that shouldn’t be done.”

Megaw pointed to Alamos Gold’s (TSX, NYSE: AGI) receipt in January of an environmental permit at its Mulatos project in Sonora state. The 40-year veteran of exploration in Mexico said Camimexes alarming figures are “logical extensions of declining trends that developed over the last three to four years under Amlo,” adding that it will take six to 10 months to get a feel for Sheinbaum’s trajectory.

Almaden case

Part of the government’s path now is to arbitration hearings. Almaden’s action comes after the government canceled the concession rights at its Ixtaca gold-silver project in Mexico’s east-central Puebla state in 2023. Silver Bull seeks damages for the government’s alleged expropriation of its Sierra Mojada project.

Law firm Boies, Schiller, Flexner (BSF) in New York City filed both cases with the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes in Washington, DC. Silver Bull’s first hearing is scheduled for October next year.

“We haven’t observed any differences in approach by Sheinbaum’s administration towards the mining industry or towards Canadian investment in the mining industry,” BSF lawyer Kristen Young told The Northern Miner. “What we have observed thus far is a continuation of Amlo’s prior policies that in essence were anti-mining.”

Almaden’s case is the latest example of foreign miners running afoul of the Mexican government’s restrictive approach to mining. Amlo, the former populist president whose tenure ran from 2018 until last October, oversaw mining law reforms that blocked new concessions and added tougher regulations. He also proposed an open-pit mining ban, though Sheinbaum has pledged to review it.

No new concessions

Camimex already projects that mining investment will decline by $1.2 billion this year, from last year’s expected investment of $5 billion, according to reporting by El Economista. That drop, marking the sector’s lowest investment level in a decade, is mainly because no new mining concessions have been granted under the Amlo and Sheinbaum governments, chamber president Pedro Rivero said last October.

However, acquisitions and investments over the past six months are positive developments, Megaw said, “even if not yet at anything approaching desired levels.” 

They include Coeur Mining’s (NYSE: CDE) $1.7 billion deal to buy Silvercrest Metals (TSX: SIL; NYSE: SILV) and its Las Chispas mine in Mexico, First Majestic Silver’s (TSX: AG) $970 million acquisition of Gatos Silver (NYSE: GATO) and Vizsla Silver’s (TSXV, NYSE: VZLA) $65 million investment for exploration at its Panuco project.

He also noted the optimism expressed by Torex Gold Resources (TSX: TXG) CEO Jody Kuzenko about Sheinbaum in March as the company prepared to start production at its Media Luna project in Guerrero state.

Ixtaca

Almaden is pursuing its case with Almadex Minerals (TSXV: DEX), which holds a 2% net smelter return royalty at Ixtaca. They claim Mexico unlawfully expropriated their protected investments without compensation, failed to treat the investments fairly and unlawfully discriminated against them. 

At issue is a Mexican Supreme Court ruling in 2022 which found the country’s mining authority Economia improperly issued Almaden’s mineral titles because it hadn’t sufficiently consulted with a local Indigenous Ejido group. The court suspended the titles, first granted in 2003 and 2009, so that Economia could reissue them after consultations took place. 

Almaden started working with Economia on the consultations, but in 2023 the authority sought through the court to deny the title applications retroactively due to alleged technical issues.

“Amlo at the time had directed his administration to do two things: not to approve any new mining concessions and not to permit any new mining projects,” Young said. “Our position is that the decision of (Economia) was reflective of that political instruction such that when the Supreme Court asked Economia ‘please reassess these concessions before you do Indigenous consultations,’ it was an opportunity for Economia to then cancel and fold those concessions consistent with Amlo’s policy.”

The Indigenous consultations didn’t happen even though Young said the local community was supportive and Almaden was confident the consultations would succeed.

“Economia, rather than permitting the local communities a voice, actually denied them a voice and canceled these concessions in full before doing any consultation,” she said.

No amicable resolution

Almaden opted to take its case to arbitration after the government indicated in a meeting last May that it wasn’t willing to consider an amicable resolution, Young said. The company decided that arbitration was its last resort.

Silver Bull claims that a local mining cooperative erected an illegal blockade in 2019 to force the company to pay an undeserved royalty payment. The government failed to take any action against the blockaders, who prevented access to Sierra Mojada, located in Coahuila state, Silver Bull says.

The Almaden and Silver Bull cases show the Mexican government’s approach to foreign miners will lead to more arbitration claims, Young said.

“Given the nature of Mexico’s actions I think it will continue to face losses in arbitration,” she said. “That, coupled with its policies could lead to less investment in the extractives sector and in turn lead to economic losses and a lack of growth in this sector in Mexico.”

Canada-listed firms raised just $2 billion in the first quarter, compared to the $2.9 billion raised during the same period a year ago, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Investment bankers say market gyrations wrought by the US-Canada trade war have made dealmaking difficult.

“Whatever thesis you have for making your investment today could be very different from a month, an hour, a year from now,” said Grant Kernaghan, chief executive officer and chairman of Citigroup Global Markets Canada Inc. “This is not, for the most part, a positive backdrop just because there’s too much volatility.”

The cooling market dashed the hopes of some dealmakers who saw green shoots in 2024, including an initial public offering that ended an 18-month dry spell and a steady flow of deals for existing shares.

Companies weighing a share sale today believe the price they’ll get might fluctuate wildly with every conflicting headline, and that uncertainty also dampens buyer sentiment, Kernaghan said. That’s why investment bankers have been very picky about when they bring deals to the market, and it’s also why deals that take longer to market — like IPOs — could be delayed, leading potentially to a further slowdown in activity.

“There have been some very good days,” said Daniel Nowlan, managing director of equity capital markets, corporate and investment banking at National Bank Financial Markets. He pointed to Swiss Re’s C$655 million ($455 million) sale of its 10% stake in Definity Financial Corp., a Canadian insurer, announced March 18.

“For a company that’s not very liquid, it went very well with great names in the book,” Nowlan said. “But it’s one of those things where we had to pick exactly the right day to be able to do it.”

One bright spot in the market has been miners of precious metals. Precious metals companies raised $1.1 billion in Canadian markets in the first quarter, more than four times the amount in the same period last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Discovery Silver Corp.’s C$247.5 million deal is Canada’s biggest equity raise so far this year.

“It hasn’t been a surprise given gold’s strength recently,” said Mike Wang, portfolio manager, ECM and options with Periscope Capital Inc. in Toronto. The increase in activity in materials has prompted the firm and its Periscope Capital Multi-Strategy Fund to focus on it, he said.

“There are certainly sectors within mining that would have no problem coming to market right now and raising equity, but outside of that, I think it’s certainly very challenging,” Citigroup’s Kernaghan said.

(By Geoffrey Morgan)

The acquisition, says Endeavour CEO Dan Dickson, brings the company closer to becoming a senior silver producer, and would lead to a “material increase” in the company’s production profile with an estimated addition of 5 million oz. in silver equivalent annually. This represents two-thirds of Endeavour’s production of 7.6 million oz. in 2024.

The Kolpa mine is a fully funded primary silver mine located approximately 74 km south of Huancavelica City. It started off as a small-scale operation 75 years ago, and has since successfully undergone several expansions to reach its current installed capacity of 1,800 tonnes per day, with permitting in progress for additional expansion to 2,500 tpd. For the last 25 years, Kolpa has been in continuous production.

Transaction details

The transaction will see Endeavour pay $145 million to acquire Compañia Minera Kolpa, a private Peruvian firm owned by affiliates of Arias Resource Capital Management and Grupo Raffo. In 2022, Compañia Minera Kolpa offered to buy Canada’s Sierra Metals (TSX: SMT), majority owner of the Yauricocha polymetallic mine located near Kolpa, but failed in its attempt.

The consideration consists of $80 million cash and $65 million in Endeavour shares. The number of shares to be issued is based on a deemed price of $4.618 per share, the volume-weighted average price of its NYSE-listed shares for the 10 business days prior.

Endeavour has also agreed to pay up to $10 million in milestone payments and add $20 million in net debt owed by Compañia Minera Kolpa.

To fund the acquisition, Endeavour has entered a streaming agreement with Versamet — the royalties company created by Sandbox Royalties and B2Gold (TSX: BTO; NYSE-A: BTG) — who will make a $35 million prepayment for the copper produced from Kolpa.

Endeavour will also complete a $45 million bought deal financing by issuing shares priced at $3.88 apiece, a 9% discount on the previous day’s closing price of $4.27.

The stock traded at $3.80 by midday Tuesday in New York for a market capitalization of $1.1 billion.

Hole AM-25-90 returned 653 grams silver per tonne, 4.26 grams gold, 0.02% lead and 0.04% zinc over 5.85 metres true width from 119 metres depth, Vizsla said Monday in a statement. The same hole also returned an interval from 131 metres depth of 457 grams silver, 2 grams gold, 0.08% lead and 0.18% zinc over 2.6 metres true width, the company added.

The hole is located about 6 km northeast of the Copala resource area, which is located along the Animas vein system below historic mine workings. Vizsla is planning to follow up on the discovery with further drilling.

“While early stage, in our view the discovery underscores Panuco’s district scale potential,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Kevin O’Halloran said in a note to clients.

Five targets

News of the discovery comes as Vizsla carries out a 10,000-metre drill program – started late last year – to test several veins in five priority targets across the district. The discovery was made at the La Pipa target.

“This new discovery underscores the strong potential for new wide, high-grade silver and gold mineralization in the Panuco district, which has historically seen limited systematic exploration,” CEO Michael Konnert said in the statement.

“To date, drilling in the area has been limited, however ongoing geologic interpretation of the localized system suggests both grade and widths may increase at depth. We will evaluate plans to follow up on this exciting discovery.”

Further details on additional drilling will be provided “in due course,” Vizsla said.

Panuco is estimated to contain 12.96 million tonnes in measured and indicated resources grading 307 grams silver per tonne, 2.49 grams gold, 0.27% lead and 0.85% zinc, Vizsla said in January. This equates to 222.4 million oz. of silver-equivalent compared with a previous estimate of 155.5 million oz.

The project is located in southern Sinaloa, near the city of Mazatlán. The 72 sq. km district has more than 86 km of total vein extent, 35 km of underground mines, roads, power and permits.

Vizsla shares fell 0.9% to C$3.24 apiece in late morning Toronto trading Monday as wider markets fell on tariff fears. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$935 million.

In a video interview, Joaquin Marias, vice-president of exploration, says this prepares drill targets for an exploration campaign that will start in May.

“We are going to re-log about 15-20% of the historical drill core,” Marias said early this month during the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada’s event in Toronto.

The planned work covers core re-analysis, mapping and soil sampling. El Quevar already has a measured and indicated resource of 2.93 million tonnes at 482 grams silver per tonne for 45.3 million oz. of metal.

The project has infrastructure. A ready camp with capacity for 100 workers and over 60 km of internal roads sit on the site, and external links include a road, a railroad, a gas pipeline and a solar farm 20 km away. These facilities could help restart operations quickly, Marias suggested.

Watch the full interview below with The Northern Miner western editor, Henry Lazenby.

Joint venture videos are paid-for content in arrangement with The Northern Miner.

The company identified the prospects by using a proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) technology, which has proven effective in detecting and locating various mineral deposits. 

In 2023, Earth AI made its first discovery of a greenfield molybdenum deposit using its AI tool. Last year, the firm also uncovered one of the largest palladium mineral systems in New South Wales, Australia. 

Earth AI plans to conduct further assessments to evaluate the feasibility of mining operations at the newly discovered sites. These areas show significant concentrations of tungsten, cobalt, and gold.

At the Kooranjie project in New South Wales, high-grade samples revealed up to 0.26% tungsten, 23.6 ppm silver, 0.052% molybdenum, and 0.044% tin. 

In the Northern Territory, the Elkedra project demonstrated promising results, with up to 0.39% cobalt, 1.39% copper, and 0.685 g/t gold.

Earth AI is set to begin a preliminary drilling program in May 2025 to further investigate these findings and refine geological models for future exploration.

Founded in 2017, the company takes a novel approach to mineral exploration by combining AI-powered discovery software with proprietary drilling technology. This allows it to identify mineral prospects, validate and delineate the scale of deposits more quickly and cost-effectively than traditional methods.

February merchandise-trade data on Thursday are likely to show the deficit grew to almost $162 billion, according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets. He’s one of several forecasters who expect the deficit to widen, or at least stay close to January’s $155.6 billion, though the median projection in a Bloomberg survey calls for it to narrow.

Much of the widening can be traced to imports of gold. Stockpiles have surged in recent months on concerns precious metals may be included in the Trump administration’s broad tariffs. That’s also boosted prices and created an arbitrage opportunity that incentivized traders to get their hands on physical bullion.

Inventories of gold in New York’s commodities exchange surged another 25% last month after climbing 43% in January. Stockpiles on the Comex stood at a record 42.6 million ounces on Tuesday, nearly double the inventory at the end of 2024.

Typically, a boom in imports would be a drag on growth, but gold for investment purposes is excluded from the government’s calculation of gross domestic product. Even so, the dramatic widening of the trade gap is adding to heightened anxiety about the economy as Trump’s tariffs raise concerns about stagflation and even recession.

A similar phenomenon is playing out with silver. While that metal is included in GDP no matter what the end purpose is, it’s much cheaper than gold, so the impact on the deficit is more modest.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow estimate sees the economy contracting an annualized 1.8% in the first quarter, with trade subtracting a whopping 4 percentage points. However, the model doesn’t exclude the impact from gold imports, though researchers have tried to quantify it.

The government’s final estimate of fourth-quarter growth is also due Thursday, while a preliminary look at the first quarter isn’t due until late April. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which publishes the trade and GDP reports, recently published a more detailed explanation of how international gold trade is recorded in the agency’s international economic accounts. The BEA makes no adjustments for silver.

Goods imports

The more complete January trade report — which comes out after the goods-trade figures and includes service-sector activity — showed inbound shipments of finished metal shapes, a category that includes bars of precious metals, accounted for nearly 60% of the increase in goods imports.

Much of the supply has come from Switzerland, which shipped the most gold to the US in January in data going back to 2012. February figures were similarly high.

(By Vince Golle)

Recent drilling at the Gravel Creek deposit found high-grade gold and silver. This extends the mineralized zone in the promising Jarbidge rhyolite. Near-term catalysts include releasing a preliminary economic assessment by the end of April, drilling the Wood Gulch deposit by June and ongoing prospecting of the Tomasina Fault.

“Last year Western successfully added a new, drill-tested target for resource expansion only 100-metres east of the Gravel Creek resource in the Jarbidge rhyolite,” Marud said early this month during the PDAC conference in Toronto.

The company drilled five core holes in 2024. One drill returned 1.53 metres at 20 grams gold-equivalent. The results expand the known area at Gravel Creek. They also point to a new target along the Tomasina Fault system, about 1 km west of the current resource.

Watch the full interview below with The Northern Miner western editor Henry Lazenby.

Joint venture videos are paid-for content in arrangement with The Northern Miner.

Indicated resources now total 1.19 million tonnes, a 94% increase from the 2023 initial report and grade at 187 grams silver per tonne, 0.1 grams gold, 1.56% lead and 1.7% zinc, Silver Storm reported last month. Contained metal totals 7.2 million silver oz., 3,900 oz. gold, 18,600 tonnes lead and 20,300 tonnes zinc.

The estimate boosted inferred tonnage by 58% to 1.98 million tonnes grading 175 grams silver, 0.12 grams gold, 1.27% lead and 1.42% zinc, equating to 11.2 million oz. contained silver, 7,700 oz. gold, 25,300 tonnes lead and 28,200 tonnes zinc.

Silver Storm’s La Parrilla and San Diego mines are located in Durango state about 800 km northwest of Mexico City.

‘Value storm’

“The prospect of near-term operating cashflow in combination with the longer-term growth potential of resources and reserves at both La Parrilla and San Diego…suggest a value storm brewing on the horizon,” Red Cloud Securities managing director and analyst Ron Stewart said in a note.

Red Cloud gives Silver Storm a buy rating and a C$0.27 share price target, almost double the C$0.16 it traded for on Tuesday at mid-day. It has a market capitalization of C$70.2 million.

Further exploration at Parrilla would likely lead to more resource category conversion, Silver Storm president and CEO Greg McKenzie said.

“The company is now very well positioned, having a fully permitted silver mine complex, with a sizable mineral resource endowment that could potentially feed the La Parrilla processing plant for several years,” he said in a release in February.

Drilling last year showed that previously mined areas are open at depth and appear to be wider and higher grade, Stewart said.

Precious metals tailwinds

Noting that the company plans to resume production at La Parrilla in the fourth quarter, Stewart said it comes as precious metals ride an “unprecedented price surge.”

Gold touched a historic high of $3,000 per oz. on March 14, and sat at $3,021.60 on Tuesday at mid-day. Silver, now at $33.57 per oz. is in highs last seen in 2013, driven by industrial demand for the metal in green energy technologies.

Other tailwinds for La Parrilla, located about 75 km southeast of Durango City, include it being fully permitted, with $150 million worth of infrastructure. It has a 2,000-tonne-per-day oxide and sulphide processing plant, a partial vehicle fleet and tailings storage facility.

The mine produced 34 million silver-equivalent oz. between 2006 and 2019.

Undeveloped silver potential

San Diego, located in eastern Durango, hosts 16.5 million indicated tonnes grading 57 grams silver, 0.07 gram gold, 0.7% lead and 1.23% zinc for 31.6 million contained silver ounces, according to an estimate from 2013. Inferred tonnes total 42.1 million tonnes at 61 grams silver, 0.07 gram gold, 0.9% lead and 1.32% zinc for 81.6 million oz. silver.

“(It) represents one of the largest undeveloped silver projects in Mexico,” Stewart said. Pending additional funding, the company plans to conduct 5,000 to 10,000 metres of drilling at San Diego, update the resource and do a preliminary economic assessment, according to a corporate presentation.

The milestone follows the completion of a four-week process to connect and integrate the processing plant at its $950 million project, which is expected to sustain annual production of at least 450,000 gold-equivalent ounces through 2030.

“Almost three years to the day of the release of our feasibility study for the Media Luna project, we have achieved first production of copper concentrate,” chief executive Jody Kuzenko said in a statement. “This milestone represents substantial completion of the project and the beginning of the next chapter in the evolution and growth of Torex as we become a gold and copper producer.”

Trucking of the copper concentrate will begin shortly, with sales and logistics contracts already in place. Commercial production remains on track to start in the coming weeks.

The Media Luna underground project contains significant gold, copper, and silver mineralization. Located seven kilometres from the company’s El Limón Guajes mine complex on the south side of the Balsas River, Media Luna is expected to ramp up underground mining rates to 7,500 tonnes per day by next year.

The mine is projected to produce 45 million pounds of copper annually, strengthening Torex’s long-term production outlook.

Trump’s executive order, signed Thursday, leverages the Defense Production Act to provide financing, loans, and other investment support for domestic processing of critical minerals and rare earth elements.

The order also underscores the historical significance of US mining and the need for a stable, predictable supply of essential minerals, including copper and gold, for defense, technology and infrastructure. It also directs federal agencies to expedite approvals for domestic mineral production projects.

By 12:39 p.m. ET, Northern Dynasty’s shares had climbed 32% to C$1.73, pushing the company’s market capitalization to C$908 million ($634 million), with investors expecting that the order could fast-track its flagship Pebble project in Alaska.

Controversial copper project

Northern Dynasty’s Pebble project is considered the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposit. Alongside significant amounts of gold, molybdenum and silver, the deposit contains a notable rhenium resource, a mineral critical for military applications.

However, the project has faced strong opposition for nearly two decades due to its potential environmental impact. The proposed mine site lies in the Bristol Bay region, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon fisheries.

In January 2023, the US Environmental Protection Agency blocked the project by prohibiting Northern Dynasty’s US subsidiary from storing mine waste in the Bristol Bay watershed. The company has since filed a complaint, arguing that the EPA’s decision violates federal statutes, including Alaska’s statehood rights and a land exchange approved by Congress.

Over an estimated 20-year mine life, Pebble is expected to churn out 6.4 billion lb. of copper; 7.4 million oz. of gold and 300 million lb. of molybdenum, plus 37 million oz. of silver and 200,000 kg of rhenium.

The licenses were awarded to Indian miner Vedanta and a consortium comprising local Ajlan & Bros and China’s Zijin Mining among others.

The exploration licenses cover the kingdom’s first mineralized belts located at Jabal Sayid in Madinah and Al Hajar in Aseer. They are both rich in base and precious metals, including copper, zinc, gold and silver.

The licenses cover a total area of 4,788 square kilometers (1,849 square miles), according to SPA.

The ministry said the miners would spend approximately 366 million riyals ($97.6 million) on exploration over the next three years.

The kingdom’s growing mining industry is part of the Vision 2030 plan to diversify the economy and cut reliance on fossil fuels. The government hopes to attract $100 billion a year in foreign investment under the plan by 2030.

Riyadh started awarding licenses to international miners in 2022.

Last year, Saudi Arabia revised upward estimates for its untapped mineral resources, including phosphate, gold and rare earths to $2.5 trillion, from a 2016 forecast of $1.3 trillion.

($1 = 3.7505 riyals)

(By Menna Alaa El-Din; Editing by Franklin Paul and Lisa Shumaker)

Read More: Codelco, Saudi Arabia eye joint copper investments

Hole ATXD25A cut 30 metres grading 2.21% copper, 3.17 grams gold per tonne, 15.1 grams silver and 3 grams molybdenum from 1,892 metres depth, the company reported Tuesday. The hole also pierced 16 metres at 3.04% copper, 4.82 grams gold, 21.1 grams silver and 5 grams molybdenum from 1,896 metres depth.

“Valeriano keeps getting better with every hole in the (stage five) program to date intersecting significant high-grade mineralization and setting new records for the project,” Atex president and CEO Ben Pullinger said in a release.

Hole ATXD25A extended the high-grade porphyry trend by about 1,000 metres, where it remains open, Pullinger added.

Upcoming resource

BMO Capital Markets analyst Rene Cartier wrote in a note on Tuesday that Atex’ stage five program continues to deliver, and supports the company’s upcoming resource estimate, expected to be released in the second half of the year. That update is to convert inferred resources to indicated, Atex said.

Valeriano hosts 1.4 billion inferred tonnes grading 0.49% copper, 0.21 gram gold, 0.99 gram silver and 62.4 grams molybdenum, according to a resource released in 2023. Contained metals total about 7 million tonnes copper, 9.5 million oz. gold, 46.1 million oz. silver and 90,100 tonnes molybdenum.

Atex shares rose 7.8% to C$2.34 apiece on Tuesday morning in Toronto, giving the company a market capitalization of about C$647 million. In the past year, the stock has traded between C$1.13 and C$2.40.

Agnico investment

The explorer’s stage five drill program was boosted by Agnico Eagle Mines’ (TSX, NYSE: AEM) C$55 million investment last October, which also gave the major a 13% stake in ATEX.

The highest-grade portion of ATXD25A was 1,000 metres below the B2B zone at Valeriano, which represents a new target that’s to be tested in hole ATXD25B. Two rigs are currently drilling in the B2B zone to further define it.

Another significant intersection at Valeriano, hole ATXD16B, cut 780 metres grading 0.56% copper, 0.23 gram gold, 0.9 gram silver and 90 grams molybdenum from 1,044 metres depth. It included 232 metres at 0.75% copper, 0.31 gram gold, 1.2 gram silver and 88 grams molybdenum. The hole also extended the high-grade porphyry trend by about 120 metres to the southeast, where it remains open, ATEX said.

Hole ATXD23A intersected 1,220 metres grading 0.66% copper, 0.28 gram gold, 1.9 grams silver and 130 grams molybdenum from 822 metres depth; including 22 metres at 2.35% copper, 1.31 grams gold, 8.6 grams silver and 29 grams molybdenum.

So far, 9,675 metres across five holes have been drilled in the stage five program, while another five are ongoing. The 61.3-sq-km Valeriano project is located about 200 km southeast of Huasco port, and near the border with Argentina.

A surge in lease rates for the precious metal has become the latest sign of alarm, with anxiety building over the impact of further tariffs from US President Donald Trump. That’s sparked a dash to ship silver into the US in a bid to capture premium prices in New York, possibly causing a squeeze in London.

Precious metals — gold as well as silver — have been upended this year, as Trump challenges the global trade order. That’s spurred demand for havens, and also opened up rare pricing dislocations between key markets. While spot silver has gained about 17% this year — making it one of the best performing commodities — futures in New York have done even better.

On a physical level, the tariff concerns — especially levies against Canada and Mexico, as well as wider reciprocal curbs that may kick in next month — have drawn vast quantities of both gold and silver out of London into US vaults. But given their relative value and density, gold tends to be air-freighted, with silver often taking far longer voyages, typically by ship.

Lease rates — the cost of borrowing metal, generally for a short period — have jumped. One-month rates for silver topped 6% this month after a larger spike in February. That partly reflects concerns about fast-depleting stockpiles in the UK capital, with holdings hitting a record low last month. In addition, not all of what remains is available given it’s tied to exchange-traded products.

“I expect the lease rate in London to remain high for about two to three months,” said Cao Shanshan, an analyst at COFCO Futures Co. With the UK-to-US transfer under way, “silver is a lot bulkier than gold, so the transfer of silver will likely take longer,” she said.

Exchange-reported totals in the US reflect the turmoil. Comex-tallied inventories of silver have expanded to the highest level ever in data going back to 1992 after surging by 40% so far this quarter, a record rise. While New York is still drawing in metal at present, there are also concerns the flows may be thrown into a drawn-out reverse if silver faces a shortage in London vaults.

“Should the long-fabled ‘silver squeeze’ materialize, this slower tradeflow will be a key contributor to prolonging” any potential disruption BMO Capital Markets analyst George Heppel said in a note. That’s because it would take time for silver stockpiles to flow from the US back to London, he said.

The US imports about 70% of its silver from Canada and Mexico, which have borne the brunt of the Trump administration’s moves on trade so far. Ottawa subsequently announced 25% counter tariffs on about C$30 billion ($20.8 billion) of US-made items, including silver. Since then, Trump has reiterated his desire for April 2 to mark a wave of new levies.

“The market may be underpricing the scale and impact of the upcoming April 2 US reciprocal tariffs,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Max Layton said in a note, highlighting the pricing dislocation. There may be “substantial potential upside should reciprocal tariffs be implemented over the next six months,” they said, adding that silver is unlikely to be exempted from levies.

Spot silver traded a little above $34 an ounce on Tuesday, with Comex futures almost 70 cents higher.

TD Securities also signaled its concern. “If reciprocal tariffs are really like-for-like, you would expect retaliatory tariffs on Canadian silver and that’s about 20% of US imports — so there is a higher risk associated with silver,” said Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD. “Even if the disruptions were to completely resolve overnight, we can’t go back to the prior world because you’d never know what will happen the next day.”

(By Sybilla Gross)

Rio, together with recycling and closed-loop manufacturing firm Giampaolo Group, will take a minority stake of 10-15%, according to an investor newsletter seen by Bloomberg. They join other notable investors such as Mitsubishi Materials and MKS PAMP.

Exurban was launched in 2022 by a group of well-known figures in the metals industry, including Glencore’s former head of copper and cobalt marketing.

“We share a vision of supplying critical metals to industries of the future by deploying new, zero waste recycling technology. I am excited about working together to make that vision a reality,” Exurban’s CEO Stefan Boel said in a statement.

The partnerships will help set new standards in recycling e-waste and in associated advanced technology projects, said Exurban, which is planning to build a $340 million plant in Fort Wayne, Indiana, to recover metals including copper, gold and silver.

The company had previously targeted construction to begin in 2023, but it now looks unlikely before 2026, according to the newsletter. In the near term, Exurban said it plans to complete a feasibility study by the middle of this year.

Collective rose 3.4% to C$11.54 on Friday morning in Toronto Stock Exchange trading. That gave the company a market capitalization of C$897.6 million.

Agnico agreed to buy 4,741,984 common shares of Collective at C$11.00 apiece, the company said on Friday. Closing of the offering will depend on Agnico exercising the purchase warrants it holds to buy another 2.25 million shares at C$5.01 each. In that case, Agnico would own 14.99% of Collective.

“I would like to thank Agnico Eagle for its additional support as we continue to advance our Guayabales project,” Collective’s executive chair Ari Sussman said in a release. “The proceeds received will enable us to continue with our planned drill program and we look forward to releasing results in the near term.”

Best assays

The deal comes just two days after Toronto-based Collective reported its best assays yet from the Ramp zone, inside the Apollo system at its main Guayabales project. The news boosted Collective shares to a one-year high on Thursday.

The Agnico investment and Ramp zone results add to headwinds for Collective so far this year. Just two-and-a-half weeks ago, the company reported its best intercept yet at Guayabales, located in the Caldas Department, about 275 km west of Bogota.

Collective has six rigs drilling in its fully funded 60,000-metre program for this year. Four rigs are at Apollo, one is drilling at the Tower target and the sixth is at the San Antonio project, 4 km east of Guayabales. Two more rigs are expected to start turning later this month and early in the second quarter.

The company has completed about 110,000 metres of diamond drilling at Guayabales, including 74,000 metres in 163 holes at Apollo.