GDP growth in the last quarter of Biden’s administration was 2.4%; in the first quarter of Trump’s administration, it is – 0.3%.

Wednesday’s Commerce Department report showed that US consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, a solid gain but consumers might of been stocking up before Trump’s tariffs took effect.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index (A measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) rose 2.3% from a year earlier, a lower annual inflation rate than in recent months but the March inflation data comes from a time before most of Trump’s tariffs took effect.

US and global stock markets went into a tizzy and still are — though since the 90-day hiatus was announced and trade deals are supposedly under negotiation they have recovered somewhat. The bond market too sold off dramatically after Trump’s announced high tariffs on imported goods on April 2.

Oil prices have collapsed because demand has cratered.

The macro situation? The US economy might be shrinking despite a blip from businesses and consumers stocking up before tariffs took effect. The US economy appears to have at least temporarily stalled.

China is canceling orders of key agricultural exports. It earlier this month halted a shipment of 12,000 tons of pork, the largest order since the pandemic in 2020. In the week ending April 17, China dropped its soybean orders to just 1,800 tons, down more than 97% from 72,800 tons bought the week before. China has switched to Brazil as its main soybean supplier.

The New York Post reports the US agricultural industry into a “full-blown crisis” as canceled orders from China are forcing farmers to lay off workers or shut down their businesses, according to a trade group.

Renowned economist Stephen Roach believes that we are heading for a ‘Stagflation for the Ages’, writing in Project Syndicate that The supply-chain disruptions during the pandemic look almost quaint compared to the fundamental reordering of global trade currently underway. This fracturing, when coupled with US President Donald Trump’s attacks on central-bank independence and preference for a weaker dollar, threatens a prolonged period of stagflation.

The US decoupling from global trade networks, especially from China-centric and US/Canada/Mexico-centric supply chains, will reverse supply-chain efficiencies that reduced inflation by at least half a percentage point a year over the past decade. The reversal is likely to be permanent.

Also, the reshoring of manufacturing to the US will not be seamless, nor accomplished in the short time with projects taking years to plan and construct. Finding workers for mostly low paying jobs seems to be an issue.

An AI overview tells us; In February 2024, there were approximately 482,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the US. While this is down from the 513,000 job openings in January, it’s still a significant number. Some studies project that as many as 1.9 to 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could remain unfilled by 2030 if current trends continue. 

Stagflation and gold

Frank Holmes believes investors think gold is a classic fear trade that retail investors are still sorely underexposed to.

Your author believes they should be scared, economic signs point to a coming bout of stagflation.

A stagflationary environment is one where economic growth is decelerating and inflation remains high.

Is the US on a road leading to possible stagflation and recession? An official recession being called could be just 2 months away. Tariffs are thought to be, by most, inflationary. Decelerating growth should mean more job losses on top of Federal job loss programs underway. The US, and perhaps large parts of the global economy are on the road to stagflation.

Add in the tense geo-politics at play globally from Syria to North Korea, to Taiwan, to Iran, to Israel to the Ukraine and realize that’s as gold friendly as much as Basal III.

What are good investments in a stagflationary environment. The answer is Gold and Silver.

Gold and stagflation

Gold does well in stagflationary periods and outperforms equities during recessions.

The chart below by Sunshine Profits shows the gold price climbing during the stagflationary 1970s, surging from $100 per ounce in 1976 to around $650 in 1980, when CPI inflation topped out at 14%.

In fact, gold outperforms other asset classes during times of economic stagnation and higher prices. The table below shows that, of the four business cycle phases since 1973, stagflation is the most supportive of gold, and the worst for stocks, whose investors get squeezed by rising costs and falling revenues. Gold returned 32.2% during stagflation compared to 9.6% for US Treasury bonds and -11.6% for equities.

A 2023 Forbes article asks ‘How Does Gold Perform With Inflation, Stagflation And Recession’?

How’s this for performance? In six of the last eight recessions, gold outperformed the S&P 500 by 37% on average.

During the last major bout of inflation, 1973-79, inflation averaged about 8.8% a year, while gold rocked a 35% annual return. The article notes that elevated oil prices were the primary drivers of inflation and stagflation in the 1970s.

The 2021 inflation was different from the 1970s. It was caused by government spending, supply chain disruptions and rates held too low for too long, according to Forbes. Sound familiar to what’s happening today?

When inflation started rising in March 2021 gold was trading around $1,700/oz. Over subsequent months, both gold and inflation headed higher, with the CPI topping out at 9% in July 2022 and gold reaching $2,050 in March 2022.

Forbes notes Stagflation creates economic uncertainty because it challenges the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment. Historically, gold benefits in economic uncertainty.

Conclusion

Bad economic and geo-political news leads to precious metals being an attractive alternative to stocks.

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China has yet to approve the deal, with Bunge executives and advisers growing increasingly concerned the political rift will continue to hold up the process, said the people, who asked not to be named because they’re not authorized to discuss the progress of the merger. Chief executive officer Greg Heckman has traveled to China a number of times for talks with authorities, the people said.

Bunge, which has its corporate headquarters in Missouri, is the B in the so-called ABCD quartet of storied agricultural commodity trading firms that dominate crop markets. The company announced it would buy Viterra in June 2023. At the time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated the acquisition would create a $25 billion agriculture giant capable of competing with Cargill Inc., the world’s top crop trader.

Bunge is in the final stage of regulatory approval and it’s had a “constructive dialogue” with Chinese officials, the company said in a statement to Bloomberg. A spokesman for Viterra deferred questions to Bunge. China’s commerce ministry and the state administration for market regulation didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The company has already missed its initial deadline to close the deal by mid-2024. It has also blown past the two automatic three-month extensions in the agreement. If the deal falls through due to failure to obtain antitrust approvals, Bunge would have to pay Viterra a $400 million termination fee.

It isn’t unusual for Chinese reviews of takeovers by foreign companies to drag on. But the recent souring of relations between the US and China and President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs have come at a critical point for the merger.

The deal has already received the green light from the European Union and Canada, where there were concerns about the impact on competition. Argentina has yet to weigh in, but antitrust laws in the South American nation allow for the deal to be completed, with any remedial action potentially being required later.

Bunge shares fell 2% on the news, and then quickly erased losses. The stock was up 0.3% as of 12:20 p.m. in New York. The company operates about five oilseed plants in China, while Viterra has a crop marketing unit there.

China has only blocked deals on rare occasions since its anti-monopoly law came to force in 2008, such as Coca-Cola Co.’s bid to buy China Huiyuan Juice Group Ltd. in 2009. Other deals in limbo amid the trade war include chip-designer Synopsys Inc.’s pending $34 billion purchase of software developer Ansys Inc., one of the biggest acquisitions in recent years.

China could impose conditions on deal terms to maintain competition. When Japanese trading house Marubeni purchased US grains trader Gavilon a decade ago, China required the companies to maintain independent trading units for selling soybeans to China.

On the Bunge deal, there was scrutiny from the Chinese side that the merger will increase industry concentration and could impact Beijing’s food security interests, one of the people said. The person added that the relevant regulators are conducting a careful compliance review amid the significance of the deal.

Bunge was founded in 1818 by Amsterdam importer Johann Bunge, and seven decades later it allied with another family to start trading grains. It expanded to Latin America in 1884 and the US in 1923. The company has repeatedly shifted its headquarters — to Argentina, Brazil, New York and, more recently, Chesterfield, Missouri, which is a suburb of St. Louis

The company said in the statement the deal will “strengthen global food supply resilience, benefiting farmers and end consumers around the world by ensuring a stable, diversified and reliable supply of key agricultural products.”

While Bunge is listed in New York, it’s domiciled in Switzerland, with its commodities trading desk based in Geneva. About 80% of the processing capacity of a combined Bunge-Viterra company would be located outside the US, as would more than 85% of employees.

(By Isis Almeida and Hallie Gu)

Trafigura was behind a major part of the just over 20,000 tons requested for withdrawal on Friday, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public. The orders cut available inventories of copper on the LME in Asia to the lowest in a year.

Mercuria and other traders have also been taking delivery from the LME in recent months, the people said. Bloomberg previously reported that Mercuria had been a major buyer of copper on the exchange.

The withdrawals come amid growing signs of tightness in China: the Shanghai copper market is in the steepest backwardation in nearly two years and inventories on the exchange witnessed record drawdowns.

Traders say that Chinese copper buying has been strong in spite of concerns about the trade war with the US. At the same time, the threat of tariffs on American copper imports has spurred a rush to ship copper to the US, draining stocks in the rest of the world.

Available, “on-warrant” LME stocks dropped to 108,725 tons as a result of Friday’s drawdown. That includes 66,700 tons in Europe, which traders say is almost all Russian material, for which there are fewer buyers.

Available LME copper stocks in Asian warehouses fell to 42,025 tons, the lowest since May 2024. Most of that was in Kaohsiung, the Taiwanese port that accounted for more than 80% of Friday’s requested drawdowns.

Mercuria’s head of metals Kostas Bintas told Bloomberg in March that the rush to ship metal to the US risked leaving the rest of the world perilously short of copper, and predicted that prices could hit record highs.

While prices plunged in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, they have since rebounded. On Friday, benchmark LME copper prices rose as much as 2.7% to $9,485.50 a ton.

Spokespeople for Trafigura and Mercuria declined to comment.

“The LME monitors its markets closely and has the necessary controls in place to ensure continued market orderliness,” a spokesperson said.

(By Jack Farchy and Alfred Cang)

Before Trump’s reciprocal-tariffs announcement unleashed market chaos in early April, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF was having a good 2025. It had powered 35.6% higher year-to-date exiting March, which amplified gold’s parallel 19.0% gain by 1.9x. That was decent but on the lower side, as historically gold stocks have tended to leverage material gold moves by 2x to 3x. Their degree of outperformance reflects sentiment.

That waxed pretty bearish after Trump’s Liberation Day press conference, as the extreme fear generated by plunging stock markets sucked in gold stocks. On Friday April 4th as the S&P 500 plunged 6.0%, GDX fared worse collapsing 8.8%! That proved gold stocks’ worst down day since March 2020 during the pandemic-lockdown stock panic. But within days the miners rocketed in a violent V-bounce with their metal.

Over just six trading days into mid-April, GDX catapulted up a huge 25.1%! That amplified gold’s driving 11.9% surge by a better 2.1x. With both the metal and its miners flying higher, traders’ interest mounted. Bullish gold-stock coverage ramped considerably higher in mainstream financial media including CNBC and Bloomberg. While growing bullish psychology was fun, a serious downside risk factor suddenly arose.

Gold had soared to extreme crazy-overbought levels, which I analyzed in depth in another essay last week. Gold had rallied so far so fast it was stretched way up to 1.266x its 200-day moving average. That was only the third day since January 2011 that gold had closed 26%+ above that key baseline! In order to better understand how risky that was for gold, I examined every 10%+ gold move since January 1971.

Rocketing up to that extraordinarily-overbought level extended gold’s mighty cyclical bull born in early October 2023 to huge 88.0% gains over 18.5 months! That ranked as gold’s sixth-largest cyclical-bull run since 1971. The top four were all 1970s ones, ranging from 99% to 128% gains. But that decade where the US dollar’s gold standard was severed was a once-in-a-currency’s-lifetime shock, not very comparable to today.

Excluding all those wild 1970s cyclical bulls and today’s, the next-10-largest gold cyclical bulls over gold’s entire 54.4-year modern history averaged 58.0% gains over 13.9 months. Provocatively they peaked at an average of 1.265x gold’s 200dma, exactly where it returned last month! The average gold selloffs after those massive cyclical bulls proved big and fast, averaging hefty 15.5% gold losses over a quick 1.9 months!

So in our popular weekly newsletter on April 22nd the very next day after gold’s record $3,421 close at 1.266x its 200dma, I warned “…I’m changing my bias on gold to short, and adding some GLD puts. While gold stocks are nowhere near as overbought as gold, they will follow it lower like usual amplifying any significant selloff. So I’m starting to ratchet up our trailing stops…” Miners can’t escape material gold drawdowns!

That has certainly proven true during today’s mighty cyclical gold bull, which is also a monster upleg since gold hasn’t yet seen a single 10%+ correction! Since gold miners’ profits leverage gold’s moves, so do their stock prices. No matter how fantastic gold miners’ fundamentals become, they always get sucked into meaningful gold selloffs. This chart illuminates several previous episodes during gold’s current bull run.

From early October 2023 to late December that year, gold’s initial surge climbed 14.2% achieving gold’s first new nominal record close in 3.3 years! GDX rallied 23.5% during that span, for weaker 1.7x upside leverage. While gold wasn’t overbought at all, it still took a breather with a minor 4.2% pullback into mid-February 2024. You’d think that wouldn’t be a big deal to gold-stock traders, right? They wildly overreacted.

From late December into late February, GDX plunged 19.4% for colossal 4.7x downside leverage! Then gold resumed powering higher again, on big buying from Chinese investors and central banks. By mid-May it had surged another 21.8%, driving GDX 44.5% higher for better 2.0x upside leverage. Gold had blasted into extremely-overbought territory more than 15% above its 200dma that time, so it sold off again.

Yet gold just retreated 5.7% into early June, a moderate-yet-sharp pullback. Realize corrections don’t start until 10%, anything less is defined as a pullback. That still worried gold-stock traders enough that GDX fell 11.0% by mid-June for 1.9x downside. The gold miners’ stocks couldn’t avoid getting sucked into even minor gold pullbacks, despite their earnings already soaring to records! I’ll elaborate on those later.

Gold soon resumed charging higher, forging one of its most-remarkable years ever. By late October it had powered another 21.9% higher to extremely-overbought levels. I warned earlier that month that gold’s selloff risk was high after getting so overextended! Unfortunately gold stocks really underperformed that entire surge, with GDX only rallying 33.0% for 1.5x upside. That should’ve moderated their subsequent selloff.

But sadly it didn’t, as in gold-stock-land the excitable traders seem to assume any gold retreat is apocalyptic. Trump’s election win was a big-enough surprise to unleash a massive US dollar surge, fueling gold selling. So by mid-November the yellow metal had plunged a sharp-yet-still-pullback-grade 8.0%. That was this cyclical gold bull’s largest selloff, still on the moderate side yet still terrifying gold-stock traders.

GDX not only plunged 19.5% around that several-week span for 2.4x, but continued correcting well after gold into late December! This leading gold-stock ETF eventually bottomed with a 23.4% loss which was 2.9x gold’s. Gold stocks actually suffered a 20%+ bear-market-grade selloff on a fairly-minor sub-10% gold pullback. Gold-stock speculators and investors really, really hate gold weakness no matter how mild!

Gold surged again out of that post-election pullback into late March, rallying another strong 21.9%. The parallel GDX upleg starting later in December only climbed 36.1% for 1.6x upside. Then Trump’s big reciprocal-tariffs declaration unleashed market chaos in early April, briefly engulfing gold and thus its miners’ stocks. Gold’s 4.6% pullback in just over a week proved minor again, but GDX still fell 9.8% for 2.1x.

As gold is the ultimate portfolio diversifier ideal for times of outsized stock-market volatility, it roared back 14.8% higher in a violent V-bounce! GDX soared a sympathetic 25.2% in just seven trading days, a great run but still just amplifying gold a substandard 1.7x. That blistering gold surge is what catapulted it to that crazy-overboughtness 26%+ above its 200dma. That left gold at high risk for an imminent correction-grade selloff.

Again gold’s ten-largest cyclical bulls excluding the 1970s ones averaged subsequent 15.5% corrections over 1.9 months, after cresting at an average of 1.265x gold’s 200dma. So after gold just hit 1.266x again on April 21st, odds would seem to favor another 15%ish retreat. The problem with anything rallying too far too fast is it entices in all-available near-term buyers too soon, quickly exhausting their capital inflows.

Once those burn out, only sellers remain forcing healthy selloffs to rebalance away overextended technicals and greedy sentiment. If gold saw another average post-big-cyclical-bull selloff again, 15.5% in 1.9 months would slam it way back down near $2,891 by mid-to-late June! Corrections following cyclical bulls are perfectly normal, not impairing larger secular bulls encompassing cyclical bulls and bears alike.

Yet even worse, corrections tend to bottom near 200dmas. In those top-ten gold bulls excluding the 1970s’, the subsequent corrections ended at an average of 1.024x gold’s 200dma. Ominously today that trailing baseline is still way down at $2,736, illuminating how extraordinarily-overbought gold has just been! If that forces gold to rebalance with a 15%+ correction, gold miners’ stocks aren’t going to handle it well.

Again historically GDX has tended to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x, which would imply a 30%-to-45% gold-stock cyclical bear coming! That whole range sounds pretty brutal, implying a major gold-stock bottoming somewhere between GDX $28.50 to $36.25. Interestingly excluding February 2024’s outlying downside leverage, GDX has amplified gold’s pullbacks during this cyclical bull by an average of 2.3x.

If that holds in gold’s coming selloff, GDX would be looking at a 35%ish loss near $34. This leading gold-stock ETF was challenging $52 in mid-April before gold grew too overbought, and was running near $49 midweek. So gold stocks still face serious downside from here if gold indeed corrects out of its most-extreme overboughtness since August 2011! Far from being a threat, such a selloff would be a great opportunity.

Just a couple weeks ago, speculators and investors alike were starting to grow excited about gold stocks again for the first time since the summer of 2020. They were starting to aggressively chase this sector’s strong upside momentum, buying in relatively-high. That briefly drove GDX a little into its own extreme-overboughtness territory 30%+ above its 200dma, when it hit 1.321x on April 16th. Buying high is always risky.

If traders liked gold stocks in mid-April, they should love these same gold miners about a third lower in maybe six weeks or so! As our existing newsletter gold-stock trades are stopped out with big unrealized gains, I’m salivating at the opportunity to redeploy after gold’s necessary selloff. Gold miners’ fundamentals have never been stronger, led by earnings forging ever-deeper into record territory quarter after quarter.

The major gold miners dominating GDX are now starting to report their full Q1’25 results. Once those are all published by mid-May, I’m going to analyze the GDX top 25’s like usual in another essay. I’ve been doing this for 35 quarters in a row now, gradually amassing some of the best fundamental data on gold miners in the world. The keystone element is their implied sector unit earnings, distilling down everything else.

That’s simply calculated by averaging the GDX top 25’s all-in sustaining costs per ounce then subtracting them from that quarter’s average gold prices. This reveals major gold miners’ average per-ounce profits, which is a great metric for how they are faring. During the last six fully-reported quarters ending in Q4’24, these have soared 87%, 47%, 35%, 84%, 74%, and 78% YoY to a dazzling record $1,207 per ounce exiting 2024!

No other sector in all the stock markets even comes close to such spectacular sustained earnings growth. And that’s going to continue accelerating in this recently-completed Q1’25. Gold averaged an amazing record $2,866 last quarter, rocketing an incredible 38.3% YoY!  A quarter earlier, the GDX-top-25 gold miners guided their full-year-2025 AISCs to a $1,512 average. Q1’s will likely shake out somewhere near there.

Assume $1,525, and that yields implied sector unit profits of $1,341 last quarter. That would prove the highest ever again by far, soaring another 70%ish YoY making for the seventh consecutive quarter of enormous earnings growth! Plenty of great gold miners are already trading at teens or even single-digit trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratios even before Q1 results. This sector remains deeply-undervalued.

So if gold’s crazy-overboughtness forces a correction-grade selloff which gold stocks will amplify like usual, they are going to be much cheaper when that bottoms. As the gold miners would be screaming buys today if not for gold prematurely exhausting its near-term upside, they will look even more appealing fundamentally after a big correction or quick bear. I can’t wait to fully redeploy in this high-potential sector then.

A gold correction following a mighty cyclical bull is nothing to fear, gold’s own fundamentals remain quite strong. I elaborated on those in a gold-trade-war-refuge essay several weeks ago if you need to get up to speed. So gold’s secular bull is highly likely to continue powering higher on balance after this normal and healthy selloff. The gold miners’ stocks will amplify those coming gains, ultimately blasting far higher from here.

So don’t get caught up in mounting fear as gold stocks retreat with their metal. The whole purpose of selloffs after strong bull runs is rebalancing sentiment, bleeding off greed while fear flares. Instead of worrying, traders need to be doing their homework during post-cyclical-bull selloffs. That means researching and studying individual gold miners to uncover fundamentally-superior ones to soon redeploy in at lower prices.

The bottom line is gold’s selloff is hitting the miners. After catapulting up to crazy-overbought levels, gold is due for a correction to rebalance away overextended technicals and greedy sentiment. The past half-century of gold precedent suggests that running around 15% over a couple months. While normal and healthy within larger secular bulls, major gold stocks still tend to amplify post-cyclical-bull selloffs by 2x to 3x.

That implies gold stocks losing about a third of their value in a quick cyclical bear in coming months. So traders with existing positions should tighten their stop losses to protect more of their big unrealized gains. While a gold correction will drag gold stocks lower, the miners’ fundamentals remain their best ever. Thus the buying opportunities after this necessary gold selloff runs its course will be excellent for prepared traders.

(By Adam Hamilton)

On the COMEX, copper for July delivery rose for a second straight session, gaining 2.5% to $4.743 per pound ($10,434 per tonne).

China’s Commerce Ministry said it had taken note of US officials’ interest in talks and was evaluating the possibility of engagement. The development offered some relief to markets rattled by escalating trade tensions.

Copper has come under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, which have raised concerns about slowing economic growth and weakening demand for industrial metals. So far, Beijing has rebuffed requests for direct talks between the two leaders.

Adding to the bullish sentiment, copper stockpiles in Shanghai have dropped significantly.

On Friday, available inventories on the London Metal Exchange also declined, following a large drawdown of material stored in Taiwan.

Copper and the new resource spheres of control

MINING.COM and The Northern Miner mapped global copper production through a geopolitical lens, dividing the world into five “spheres of control”: American, Chinese, Russian, Coalition of the Willing, and Undrafted.

These groupings reflect geographic, social, cultural, and economic ties—as well as potential alignments in an increasingly polarized world.

Explore the full infographic:

“Listing is an option,” Ajay Goel, chief financial officer of Mumbai-listed Vedanta Ltd., said Friday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It is hard to give a timeline definitely, but it’s under active consideration.”

He did not provide details on the size or location of the potential float.

The company regained control of the Konkola Copper Mines assets in Zambia last year, after the southern African nation’s government triggered its provisional liquidation about five years earlier, accusing Vedanta of lying about expansion plans and paying too little tax. The company has pledged to invest $1 billion in the operation as part of negotiations with the state to secure its return to Konkola.

Konkola boasts resources with copper concentrations much higher than those in South America — today’s biggest global source of the metal needed to build electric cars and artificial intelligence data centers. But the deposits are also deep underground, where vast rivers make the operation one of the world’s wettest.

Read More: Mining billionaire Agarwal moves closer to breaking up his empire

The miner confirmed Friday that it’s actively negotiating to buy 100% of Gold Road through an Australian scheme of arrangement — just hours after Gold Road’s shares were suspended from trading in Sydney.

Gold Road had dismissed the first approach as “highly opportunistic” and claimed it undervalued the company. Price and timing were the key sticking points, chief executive Duncan Gibbs said at the time.

Gold Fields had offered A$2.27 per share in cash, plus a variable component tied to Gold Road’s stake in De Grey Mining. In response, Gold Road proposed acquiring Gold Fields’ 50% stake in the Gruyere mine at a matching valuation. Gold Fields rejected that counter-offer and refused further talks on divesting its interest.

Now, Gold Fields is back at the table, driven by its determination to secure full control of Gruyere — one of Western Australia’s largest gold mines. Gold Road discovered the deposit in 2013 and sold a 50% interest to Gold Fields in 2016 to fund development and exploration.

Gruyere has produced over 1.5 million ounces since beginning operations in 2019. It delivered record output of nearly 92,000 ounces in the final quarter of 2024.

Gold Fields cautioned there’s no guarantee a deal will materialize. That uncertainty pushed its Johannesburg-listed shares down as much as 6.4% Friday, though the stock was up 1.6% in pre-market trading in New York to $21.66.

Gold Road’s shares, suspended early in the day due to “media speculation regarding a potential change of control transaction”, will remain trading when the market opens on May 6, unless the company issues an announcement before then.

The bid comes amid a surge in gold prices and deal-making. With gold briefly topping $3,500 an ounce last month, the sector has seen a new wave of mergers and acquisitions. Recent deals include Equinox Gold’s  (TSX: EQX) C$2.6 billion ($1.88 billion) acquisition of Calibre Mining in Canada, and China’s CMOC Group buying Lumina Gold for C$581 million ($421m).

The inclusion process, issued through an interim final rule on Wednesday, also eliminates the Section 232 aluminum and steel exclusions process, the Commerce Department said in a statement.

The action follows proclamations by President Donald Trump to establish a mechanism for expanding the scope of steel and aluminum tariffs to cover “derivative” articles that contain steel or aluminum, the department said.

(By Jasper Ward and Ismail Shakil; Editing by Leslie Adler)

The decision comes just weeks after President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing Ex-Im, the International Development Finance Corporation and other federal agencies to ensure their policies don’t deter coal mining and power projects.

The now-jettisoned restrictions, first adopted in 2013 following a lawsuit by the environmental group Friends of the Earth, barred Ex-Im support for coal projects in most countries unless carbon capture and storage technology was used to cut their emissions. The bank hadn’t financed any coal plants since the restrictions took effect.

Coal is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and supplies about one-third of the world’s electricity generation, according to the International Energy Agency. Demand for coal has fallen in developed countries but is still rising globally.

The board’s vote means the bank’s internal Environmental and Social Due Diligence Procedures and Guidelines (ESPGs) now are aligned with a separate Trump mandate, signed his first day in office, to put the interests of the US first in developing international agreements, Ex-Im said in an emailed statement.

“Coal-fired power projects will continue to be subject to the remaining provisions of the ESPGs in the same manner as other projects,” the bank said.

Conservationists blasted the move to unleash taxpayer dollars for foreign coal projects at a time when the Trump administration is moving to slash government funding and international aid.

And, they said, it’s only the latest disappointment by the Export-Import Bank. Although it has long been seen as a potential lender for emission-free energy projects overseas, the bank has instead been a persistent source of support for fossil fuel projects, under Democratic and Republican presidents alike.

For example, under former President Joe Biden, the bank continued providing loans for overseas oil and gas projects, with Ex-Im’s supporters stressing that its charter bars the denial of financing “based solely on the industry, sector or business.” The bank’s charter also empowers it to block support for projects based on environmental concerns.

Thursday’s decision “basically says the US government is no longer supporting projects that save people, it is supporting projects that kill people,” said Kate DeAngelis, international finance program manager for Friends of the Earth. “Why are we still allowing this agency to exist?”

Before Trump returned to the White House, the EU, UK and US pushed to limit export-credit agency finance for global fossil fuel projects, in what was seen as a bid to protect against a shift like Thursday’s. But that effort broke down last year in the final weeks of the Biden administration.

The bank’s decision is likely to intensify scrutiny of its role and stoke more questions from critical lawmakers about whether its congressional authorization should be allowed to lapse next year.

The change shifts Ex-Im’s policies back to a time when it was “one of the largest financiers of overseas coal projects in the world,” said Jake Schmidt, senior strategic director of international climate for the Natural Resources Defense Council, another environmental nonprofit. “Congress needs to realign this rogue agency when it considers its reauthorization next year.”

(By Jennifer A Dlouhy)

Gold has climbed more than 25% this year, extending a stellar run in 2024, on the back of central bank buying, Asian investor interest, and growing haven demand. However, shares of gold miners have lagged, with some investors put off by production misses and rising costs, while others have been lured by higher returns in technology stocks and other sectors.

But with fears growing that the US economy will nosedive as President Donald Trump’s trade war intensifies, gold miners could soon catch up as bullion prices keep rallying and other asset classes become less appealing, according to McEwen, who founded Goldcorp and now leads McEwen Mining Inc.

His company — which has seen a 34% drop in its own shares over the past year — runs a handful of small mines and a portfolio of projects that it’s seeking to bring into production. While investors’ aversion to the gold-mining sector has been a headwind to those efforts, McEwen is confident that the industry as a whole is set for a revival.

“You have this cascading effect of gold’s going up, and then there’s interest in the majors, and then it goes down to the mid-tier, and then the juniors and the explorers,” he said in an interview. “When it gets down to that stage, it becomes very explosive in terms of the upward push.”

The mining veteran said bullion is still in the early stages of a bull market and expects gold equities to eventually outperform that of gold in the next two to three years, as the metal surges to $5,000 an ounce.

That’s higher than mainstream gold analysts are forecasting, but many of them have been raising their targets as prices has soared to new all-time highs.

(By Yvonne Yue Li)

Read More: Gold equities going under investors’ radar as metal continues to rise: Peter Schiff

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) surged to its highest in a month Thursday after the Canadian miner posted strong results for the first quarter of 2025.

For the three-month period, Ivanhoe recognized a record revenue of $973 million, operating profit of $471 million and EBITDA of $585 million, equivalent to a margin of 60%. Its adjusted EBITDA also set a record of $226 million.

These figures drove the company’s profit to $122 million, or $0.10 per share, beating the market forecast of $0.07 a share.

Shares of Ivanhoe jumped as much as 12% to a one-month high of C$13.74 apiece on the positive Q1 results. By 1:20 p.m. in Toronto, the stock traded at C$13.32 for an intraday gain of 8.8%, giving the company a market capitalization of nearly C$18 billion.

Kamoa performance

The first quarter results, said Ivanhoe founder Robert Friedland, reflect the company’s “strong efforts” at the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

From January to March, the copper mine, in which Ivanhoe holds a 39.6% stake, produced a near-record 133,120 tonnes, compared to 86,117 tonnes the same period last year. From March 18, the copper production rate increased to 614,000 tonnes on an annualized basis, setting up a higher monthly output starting in April.

“Kamoa-Kakula is set for record production in the shorter month of April, achieving approximately 50,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, equivalent to an annualized rate of over 600,000 tonnes – a remarkable achievement,” Friedland said in a press release.

During the quarter, the Phase 1, 2 and 3 concentrators at Kamoa-Kakula achieved a combined milling record of approximately 3.7 million tonnes at an average record recovery rate of 87.4%. This was underpinned by the Phase 3 concentrator operating 20% above its design capacity, Ivanhoe said.

Given these results, the company is maintaining its 2025 production guidance at 520,000 to 580,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate. In 2026, Ivanhoe is targeting approximately 600,000 tonnes of production as the Phase 1 and 2 recoveries improve and the Phase 3 throughput increases.

It also noted that Kamoa-Kakula’s 500,000-tonne-per-annum on-site, direct-to-blister copper smelter, the largest in Africa, is now complete, with the facility undergoing commissioning. Start-up of the smelter is expected in May, with first copper anode production expected in July.

Kipushi progress

Ivanhoe has also maintained its outlook for the Kipushi zinc mine, also in the DRC, on record production in the first quarter.

During Q1, the Kipushi concentrator milled a record 151,403 tonnes of ore at a record average grade of 32.5% zinc, producing 42,736 tonnes of zinc in concentrate at a contained grade of over 53%.

For the year, Ivanhoe expects Kipushi’s zinc output to range between 180,000 and 240,000 tonnes, as the mine continues its ramp up to steady state. The production rate is expected to rise to 250,000 tonnes in 2026 following the completion of ramp-up and debottlenecking activities at Kipushi.

The debottlenecking program, which is targeting a 20% increase in the concentrator’s processing capacity to up to 960,000 tonnes per annum, is about two-thirds complete, Ivanhoe said.

On the COMEX, copper for July delivery climbed 1.6% to $4.683 per pound ($10,302 per tonne) after tumbling 5% on Wednesday. In London, three-month copper futures rose above $9,200 per tonne, recovering part of Wednesday’s 3% loss.

The rebound came after US President Donald Trump said there was a “very good chance” of reaching an agreement with China, although he emphasized it would need to be on US terms. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer added that the US was close to announcing an initial batch of trade deals.

Copper fell 6% in April — its worst monthly performance since mid-2022 — amid growing concerns of a global trade war. Washington is also reviewing whether to impose tariffs on US copper imports.

Adding to the volatility, supply concerns resurfaced in Peru — the world’s third-largest copper producer — as community protests disrupted operations at two major mines. While protests at Antamina (owned by BHP and Glencore) were quickly resolved, logistics at Las Bambas (operated by China’s MMG.) are still being restored.

Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group now forecasts a larger global surplus of the metal. After meeting with industry leaders in Lisbon, the group revised its 2025 forecast to a surplus of 289,000 tonnes — more than double the 138,000 tonnes from last year and significantly above its previous 2025 estimate of 194,000 tonnes.

The surplus is projected to remain elevated in 2026 at 209,000 tonnes, marking three consecutive years of oversupply.

(With files from Bloomberg)

According to Goldman Sachs trader Adam Gillard, nearly 1 million oz. were sold through the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) before the market closed for the Chinese

holiday. This reverses nearly all of the positions bought last week, sending China’s total onshore gold holdings down by 5% from historic highs.

While China’s share of global open interest remains at a high level (about 40%) despite the liquidation, the upward momentum seems to have temporarily peaked, Gillard wrote in a note.

The Chinese selloff took spot gold prices down close to $3,200 an ounce on Thursday morning, a level last seen on April 14.

A report released by Gillard earlier showed that Chinese investors increased their holdings by 1.2 million oz. of gold through the two exchanges last Tuesday, coinciding with the yellow metal’s record-setting move above $3,500 per ounce.

The recent price movement highlights the significant influence China has on the global gold market. In his note, Gillard pointed out that recent fluctuations in gold prices have “almost all occurred around the opening hours of the Chinese market.”

He also highlighted gold’s unique status as a “flow commodity” — meaning it is especially sensitive to large, sudden shifts in investor sentiment and liquidity.

Still, bullion remains one of the top-performing assets this year, gaining about 23% while setting multiple record highs.

Adjusted first-quarter earnings increased to $59.8 million, or $0.14 a share, from $51.2 million, or $0.13, in the same period a year ago, Toronto-based Alamos said Wednesday after the close of trading. Per-share profit missed the $0.19 consensus estimate in a survey of financial analysts.

The results sent Alamos shares tumbling about 12% to C$34.52 ($25.01) in late morning trading Thursday in Toronto. That gave the company a market capitalization of about C$14.5 billion ($10.5 billion).

“Overall, a relatively weak quarter to start the year, but the company has a clear path to improved operations for the remainder of the year,” CIBC Capital Markets analyst Cosmos Chiu said in a note Thursday. He reaffirmed his “outperformer” rating on the stock.

First-quarter gold production of 125,000 oz. came in at the low end of the company’s previously disclosed range and below analyst expectations.

CEO John McCluskey blamed a slower ramp-up at the Magino mill and lower production from the Young-Davidson property – both in northern Ontario – for the slump. The operations showed improvements in April, which the executive said would contribute to higher output and lower costs in the second quarter. Magino was integrated into Alamos’ portfolio after the company acquired Argonaut Gold last year.

Gold’s historic run is providing miners such as Alamos an unexpected tailwind. The metal, which set an all-time closing high of $3,433.55 an oz. in London last week, has gained about 40% since the start of the year.

Ontario, Manitoba catalysts

Helped by rising output at its Island Gold mine in Ontario and the development of the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba, Alamos is working on boosting gold production to about 900,000 oz. in a few years. It’s aiming to produce between 580,000 and 630,000 oz. in 2025.

First-quarter revenue jumped 20% to $333 million thanks to rising gold prices. Alamos sold 117,583 oz. of gold during the quarter at an average realized price of $2,802 per ounce. Sales were 6% lower than production due to timing, though the sale of these ounces will benefit future quarters, according to the company.

Total cash costs of $1,193 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs of $1,805 per ounce were above the top end of guidance for the first half, Alamos said. Higher share-based compensation costs and higher per-oz. costs at Young-Davidson and Magino drove the increase.

All-in sustaining costs are expected to drop about 20% in the second quarter, with further decreases planned for the rest of the year, Alamos said.

Full-year goal

Alamos also reaffirmed its full-year goal of producing between 580,000 and 630,000 oz. of gold this year.

“With a further increase in production and decrease in costs expected in the second half of the year, we remain on track to achieve our full-year production guidance,” McCluskey said. “We expect this improvement to continue over the next several years through our portfolio of high-return, low-cost growth projects.”

Higher milling rates at Magino, along with increased grades at Young-Davidson and the La Yaqui Grande mine in northern Mexico, are expected to lift second-quarter output to between 135,000 and 150,000 ounces, the company said. A more significant increase in production is expected into the second half.

“The noise in Q1/25 is not expected to last with production trending higher through the year,” National Bank Financial analyst Don DeMarco, who has an “outperform” rating on Alamos, said in a note. Earnings “should continue to grow as more and more of the portfolio upside comes online.”

Spot gold was down 2.0% to $3,221.94 per ounce as of 10:30 a.m. ET, after touching its lowest since April 14 earlier. Three-month gold futures saw a bigger drop of 2.7% to $3,230.10 an ounce in New York.

Gold has now pulled back sharply from the $3,500-an-ounce milestone reached a week ago, coinciding with improved market sentiment after the Trump administration hinted it is closing in on the first tranche of trade deals, as confirmed by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Wednesday.

On the same day, US President Trump said he has potential deals lined up with India, Japan and South Korea. There also is a “very good chance” of securing a deal with China, he added.

“There’s hints of upcoming trade deals, and talk from China that the Trump administration had reached out. A risk-on trade is going on, leading to some profit-taking in gold’s safe-haven,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Despite the profit-taking, bullion remains one of the best-performing assets this year, recording a gain of 23% in 2025 while setting multiple record highs along the way.

Bullish sentiment

Analysts remain bullish on the yellow metal due to its reputation as a haven asset, as Trump’s fast-evolving trade policy continues to cast doubt on the global economy.

The latest quarterly poll by Reuters is forecasting gold prices to average above $3,000 annually for the first time, supported by global trade frictions and a swing away from the US dollar.

Last week, JPMorgan said it expects gold to average $3,675 in the fourth quarter, on its way to reaching $4,000 an ounce by the middle of next year on rising probability of a recession.

Data on Wednesday showed that the US economy contracted in the first quarter at the start of the year for the first time since 2022 due to a monumental pre-tariffs import surge. That saw traders boost wagers on four quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to help prevent a recession, adding support to gold.

“While the short-term correction has been driven by improved market sentiment, the structural drivers underpinning gold’s strength remain firmly in place,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

(With files from Bloomberg and Reuters)

USAR is currently finishing the construction of a 310,000-square-foot facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma — also known as Innovation Lab — which it officially opened in late March, having already produced the first batch of sintered magnets earlier in the year.

The plant is designed to replicate the complete rare earth magnet production process, the company said. Following the recent commissioning, it will begin producing protypes for customers ahead of commercial operations in 2026.

At full capacity, the state-of-the-art facility is expected to produce 5,000 tonnes, or hundreds of millions of magnets annually, according to company estimates.

The company, which debuted on the NASDAQ mid-March, previously said that it would invest $100 million in the manufacturing facility.

As part of a vertically integrated supply chain strategy, USAR holds the Round Top deposit in West Texas, where it produced its first sample of dysprosium oxide in January.

The company has said it aims to bring the deposit towards production around the same time as the Oklahoma plant.

The $75 million funding was made via a private investment in public equity (PIPE), the company said.

“This sizable commitment from a single institution allows us to fully fund the capex required for the first phase of our rare earth magnet facility,” USA Rare Earth CEO Joshua Ballard said in a statement.

He also highlighted this as a “pivotal moment” in the company’s push to build what would be one of the largest sintered rare earth magnet facilities in the US.

Under the PIPE transaction, the investor would acquire 8.55 million shares of common stock, pre-funded warrants to purchase another 2.16 million shares and warrants to purchase the combined total number of shares at a strike price of $7.00 per share.

Despite the funding, USAR fell 18.3% at market close to $10.51 apiece, close to where it traded at when it first listed. The stock decline gives the company a market capitalization of $861.3 million.

The resolution was passed at the company’s general meeting, with 99.94% of votes cast in favor.

The demerger is expected to become effective on May 31, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain conditions.

Amplats, the world’s leading producer of platinum group metals (PGM) by volume, will be separated from Anglo American as the parent company refocuses on energy transition metals like copper and iron ore.

Amplats, which proposed changing its name to Valterra Platinum in March, will retain its primary listing in Johannesburg, with a secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange.

The share consolidation is set to take effect on June 1, with the ratio to be announced on May 20.

(By Aatrayee Chatterjee; Editing by Alan Barona)

On the COMEX, copper for July delivery dropped 5.4% to $4.609 per lb. ($10,139 a tonne) in morning trading. The selloff was driven in part by Chinese investors unwinding arbitrage trades across New York, London, and Shanghai. Wednesday marked the last trading day in China before the May holiday.

Adding to bearish sentiment was a key Chinese manufacturing index that came in significantly below expectations, suggesting factory activity is contracting amid growing trade tensions with the US. The data undercut recent optimism fueled by plunging stockpiles and rising import premiums in China.

Surplus set to double

The downturn also follows a revised forecast from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), which now expects the global copper surplus to more than double in 2025.

After wrapping up its biannual meeting with industry leaders in Lisbon, the ICSG said it expects the global surplus to reach 289,000 tonnes next year, up from 138,000 tonnes in 2024 and significantly higher than its prior projection of 194,000 tonnes for 2025.

The surplus is forecast to remain elevated in 2026 at 209,000 tonnes, marking a third consecutive year of oversupply following a balanced market in 2023.

According to the group, the growing surplus reflects a mix of rising production and softening demand, with US tariffs and global trade uncertainties weighing on industrial consumption.

Total gold demand reached 1,206 tonnes in the first three months of 2025, a 1% increase from the same period a year ago, the WGC said in a new report Wednesday. Soaring inflows into gold ETFs fuelled a 170% surge in investment demand to 552 tonnes, the highest since the first quarter of 2022, WGC said.

As gold prices set multiple record highs this year, including touching $3,500.05 per oz. last week, investors have piled into physical gold ETFs, which grew by $21 billion in the first quarter, their second highest quarterly level since the second quarter of 2020.

Gold’s average price reached $2,860 per oz. in the quarter, a 38% jump from a year ago, according to data compiled by the London Bullion Market Association.

Flows into gold

Investment flows into physical gold will probably continue to gather pace this year, the WGC said. Key factors supporting demand include continued geopolitical tensions, near-term stagflation risks, medium-term recession risks, elevated correlations between stocks and bonds and an expected increase in US deficits.

Central banks bought 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, 21% less than in the same period a year ago but within the quarterly range of the last three years. Persistent trade tensions will probably drive full-year central bank purchases close to the range of the past three years, according to the WGC.

First-quarter bar and coin demand rose 2.6% to 325 tonnes, which is 15% above the five-year quarterly average. China accounted for much of the increase, posting its second-highest quarter of retail investment.

Tech demand

Technology demand was little changed at 80.5 tonnes. Ongoing artificial intelligence adoption drove continued growth in the electronics sector, but uncertainty over tariffs should result in a challenging environment for the rest of the year, the WGC said.

Jewelry consumption shrank 21% from the year-ago quarter to 380 tonnes, weighed down by elevated prices. Consumption in the period hit its lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic brought global economies to a standstill in 2020, and WGC economists predict full-year jewelry demand will be weaker than expected in 2025 on lower growth and higher prices.

Total gold supply grew 1% from a year earlier to 1,206 tonnes, with mine production hitting a first-quarter record of 856 tonnes. Recycling declined 1% as consumers kept their gold hoping for higher prices.

Mine supply this year will probably stay close to its 2024 record level, the WGC said. “Unprecedented” cash generation should allow announced development plans to advance and mine production to stay strong. While Ghana, Chile and Canada have healthy production pipelines, disruptions in Turkey and Russia and cutbacks in Australia are expected to weigh on total output.

Read More: Annual gold price forecast tops $3,000 for first time: Reuters poll

The company’s over the counter units trading on US markets (OTCPK:GLNCY) was down by 8.6% in mid-afternoon dealings, recovering from a double digit fall at the open.

Glencore stock is down more than 26% so far this year, affording the company a market capitalization of just under $40 billion. Its market value peaked at the end of Q1 2022 at more than $90 billion.

The Swiss-headquartered miner and commodities trader reported a 30% drop in first-quarter copper production to 167,900 tonnes, but maintained its full-year forecast for 2025 at 850,000-910,000 tonnes, expecting higher output in coming months.

The top of that range would still be down from the company’s 2024 annual production of 952,000 tonnes. The Q1 production miss was primarily due to lower ore mining rates, head grades and overall recoveries at Collahuasi (29,400 tonnes), Antapaccay (20,800 tonnes) and KCC (16,700 tonnes) Glencore said.

First-quarter production of cobalt rose 44% on higher grades and volumes at its Mutanda mine, while nickel production fell 21%, it said. The company kept 2025 production guidance unchanged for both.

Glencore forecasts full-year trading and marketing earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) in the middle of its long-term guidance of $2.2 billion to $3.2 billion this year, compared to $3.2 billion in 2024.

“Since quarter-end, financial markets, including commodities, have been highly volatile and unpredictable, responding rapidly to US tariff newsflow and uncertainty.

“In such an unpredictable environment, risk management has been a primary focus, noting the many complex supply chains we are exposed to, including the US, China, Europe and Canada. Despite the ‘noise’, primary commodity trade routes to date have not been meaningfully disrupted.

“However, owing to the various proposed and currently being implemented tariffs across commodity supply chains, it is likely that some physical trade flow re-orientation and dislocation will manifest over the coming months, which may present opportunities for our marketing business,” Glencore said in a statement.

The trading division, whose profit hit a record $6.4 billion in 2022, includes coal, oil, liquefied natural gas and related products, as well as metals.

“Disappointing that in these volatile times with significant regional arbitrage in copper that marketing guidance was not at the top end of the range,” RBC Capital Markets analysts told Reuters.

Glencore’s first-quarter thermal coal production fell 7% to 23.4 million tonnes from 25.2 million tonnes a year before on lower output from its Australian mines.

The company is one of the largest producers and exporters of thermal coal, mining 99.6 million tonnes in 2024.

Glencore said in March it would begin reducing production at its Colombia mine Cerrejon by between 5 million and 10 million tonnes annually.

(With files from Reuters)

The poll of 29 analysts and traders returned a median forecast of $3,065 per troy ounce of gold for this year, up from $2,756 predicted in a poll three months ago. The estimated price for 2026 rose to $3,000 from $2,700.

Spot gold prices have risen by a quarter so far in 2025, almost equalling the 27% increase recorded for the whole of 2024. Bullion, often seen as a store of value during uncertain times, has averaged $2,952 so far this year, according to LSEG data.

“Gold looks set for what can only be described as another epic year,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. “Like in the early 2000s, gold is seeing buying on price strength which can have the effect of feeding upon itself.”

Bullion broke above the $3,000 mark for the first time in mid-March and topped $3,500 last week as the trade battle between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, boosted safe-haven demand, on top of persistent central bank buying.

Although the gold price has since eased to $3,273, analysts expect it to remain supported by the wild swings in US tariff policies and what are likely to be protracted trade negotiations.

“Gold’s fortune will continue to depend on other markets’ misfortune,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Bullion will remain supported, according to Hansen, as long as the focus remains on de-dollarization and the impact of US tariffs on global growth and fiscal stability.

At the same time, analysts warned of a crowded trade, while the high prices are curbing jewellery sector demand.

“Price risks persist given the physical market is wavering and central bank flows – while positive – are slowing, while an unwinding of tariff risk and fading recession risk can stall gold’s safe-haven appeal,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper.

Silver, meanwhile, has underperformed gold with a rise of 12% so far this year, as it doesn’t benefit from central bank buying while investment demand has been dampened by growth worries. Half of total demand for silver comes from the industrial sector.

The poll forecast an average 2025 silver price of $33.10 per ounce, unchanged from the previous survey. It has averaged $32 so far this year.

Analysts lifted their 2026 silver price forecast to $34.58 from $33.45, expecting a structural market deficit and the global clean energy transition to provide support.

“Industrial demand is currently a little hampered by oversupply of solar cells but this should work its way through. Strengthening demand from autos and AI will also help to keep the market in a deficit of supply vs fabrication demand, which will widen in 2026,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell.

(By Anmol Choubey, Kavya Balaraman and Polina Devitt; Editing by Veronica Brown and Kirsten Donovan)

The Group, which recently concluded its biannual meeting with key industry players in Lisbon, forecasts global copper surplus to reach 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 138,000 tonnes from last year. This forecast also represents a larger surplus than its earlier projection of 194,000 tonnes.

In 2026, the surplus is expected to remain high at 209,000 tonnes, extending the surplus for a third straight year after a largely balanced market in 2023.

The widening surplus over the 2025-26 period, according to ICSG, can be largely attributed to higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity.

Mine supply growth

For 2025, the Group expects global mine production to increase by 2.3% to 23.5 million tonnes, benefiting mainly from the ramp-up of the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and the commissioning of the new Malmyz mine in Russia.

In 2026, a higher growth of 2.5% is anticipated, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity (including China), an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output, and a recovery in Indonesia from expected declines in 2025.

In both years, ICSG said a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of a number of small and medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production notably in the DRC, Brazil, Iran, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, Eritrea, Greece, Angola and Morocco.

Higher refining capacity

The ICSG also sees expanded Chinese smelting capacity, as well as the start-up of new refineries in India, Indonesia and DRC, to contribute to a 2.9% increase in refined copper output this year.

In 2026, however, total refined production is expected to decline by 1.5%, due to constrained availability of copper concentrates leading to a slowdown in primary refined production. This will be offset partially continued growth in the secondary processing sector, which generates refined copper from scrap.

Demand impact

According to the ICSG, uncertainty surrounding international trade policy is likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, dragging this year’s refined copper usage down to 2.4% compared to its previous forecast of 2.7% and the 2.8% recorded in 2024.

Copper usage growth is expected to slow further to 1.8% in 2026, largely reflecting an anticipated loss of momentum in China, where copper usage is expected to shrink from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year.

Demand in other key copper regions such as Europe, Japan and the US is also expected to remain “subdued”, leaving the Asia region as the lone key driver of demand.

However, ICSG also acknowledged that demand drivers such as energy transition technology and data centers will continue to support copper usage, helping to offset some of the broader manufacturing hit from a prolonged trade war.

The full ICSG report is here.

Industry sources said the turnaround came after members told the LME that the plan would be expensive for them and that other exchanges such as COMEX do not have this requirement.

The exchange’s plans to oblige members to transact private deals, known as over-the-counter (OTC) trades, on its electronic trading system Select were intially mooted in a white paper last year.

There will be a consultation period until June 13 on the revised plans, which include hedging LME contracts on Select.

The LME will progress with the original proposal if market monitoring indicates that on-exchange controls are encouraging more trading to take place OTC.

“Given this, the LME intends to increase the fee for OTC (trades) to be twice that of exchange business,” the exchange said in a release on Wednesday.

Fees for using LME prices in OTC contracts are $2.36 per lot. For copper where one lot is 25 metric tons, that would amount to nearly 10 US cents a ton.

Since the paper was published the LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, has talked to its members and the wider metals market about its plans to boost transparency and liquidity.

“We have listened carefully to these views and they have enabled us to refine different elements to better meet the needs of different sections of the market,” said LME chief executive Matthew Chamberlain.

Earlier this year Reuters reported that the Futures Industry Association (FIA) and the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) sent a joint letter to the LME laying out members’ concerns about these proposals.

The LME, the world’s largest and oldest forum for trading metals, has also tried to address members’ concerns about hedging LME contracts or block trades of up to 10 lots for the most liquid contracts, which include the three-month benchmarks.

“The feedback received suggested that there should be differentiation across different metals,” it said.

The LME has analyzed factors such as bid/ask spreads, size of the book, average trade size and notional size. It is proposing 15 lots or 375 tons for aluminum, 10 lots or 250 tons for copper, zinc and lead and 5 lots or 30 tons for nickel.

The plans also include expanding the definition of lower-cost short-dated carry trades to 60 days from 15 days, so long as the contracts to buy and sell are within 15 days of each other.

This will cut costs for physical market buyers and sellers who may want to switch delivery dates.

(By Pratima Desai and Eric Onstad; Editing by Jan Harvey and Freya Whitworth)

China’s copper smelting industry is in a deep funk as an ever-growing number of furnaces jostle for limited concentrate supplies. Smelting capacity is up a quarter since 2021 and is set to rise around 10% this year, even as mine closures overseas keep supplies of the crucial raw material tight.

The fees smelters receive for refining ore, called concentrate treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), are already negative and set to fall further, according to six traders and analysts. Negative TC/RCs mean smelters must pay miners or traders to process concentrate into metal, in effect paying their customers.

However, smelters are unlikely to cut significant production despite dire TC/RCs because high prices for smelting byproducts like gold and sulfur are partially offsetting losses, they said.

Record prices for gold are offsetting some of the losses for processing concentrate rich in gold, according to one trader, who said he had heard of one TC/RC deal at minus $80 per metric ton or minus 8.0 cents per pound.

Smaller, older smelters without the advanced technology to extract gold and other byproducts are likely to struggle, however, because they only account for a small part of production, according to three sources. Cuts and closures at these facilities are unlikely to drag down Chinese copper output, they said.

The copper concentrates TC/RC index hit a record low of -$34.71 per metric ton and minus 3.47 cents per pound on April 18, according to Shanghai Metals Market.

But in a sign of how the industry is powering on despite months of negative TC/RCs, analysts at Mysteel consultancy expect refined copper output to grow 10% this year.

The steady growth in refined copper output is underpinned by China’s massive expansion of copper smelting capacity, estimated by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI) at 12.78 million tons this year, up 8% from last year and 25% since 2021.

China’s refined copper output declined only 0.5% year-on-year to 3.35 million metric tons in the first quarter, according to official data.

(By Violet Li and Lewis Jackson; Editing by Saad Sayeed)

Read More: Global copper surplus to more than double in 2025 – ICSG

The spin-off includes mines across South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Among them is the Buriticá gold mine in Colombia, the country’s largest, which has been the target of attacks by illegal miners.

Zijin, China’s largest gold and copper producer, said the move aims to accelerate its global expansion, improve asset valuation and attract international investors. Despite being in the early stages and subject to regulatory approvals, the company believes the spin-off will strengthen its market position and increase shareholder value amid rising gold prices.

Zijin Gold International will remain a subsidiary after the listing, with its financial results still included in the parent company’s consolidated statements. 

The timing of the planned spin-off aligns with a surge in global gold prices, which have hit record highs in April amid mounting uncertainty around US-China trade tensions. Rising prices could further drive the revaluation of its gold assets and reduce risks tied to overseas operations.

The proposed listing still requires approval from Chinese regulators, shareholders, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, among others.

Vice President and Finance Minister Ndaba Gaolathe said the government is preparing to make “drastic” fiscal adjustments to stay afloat, including slashing expenditures and boosting tax revenues. 

“The first thing we need to do, obviously, is to live within our means,” Gaolathe said in Washington. “That means cutting spending — doing away with what we believe is some of the fat.”

Diamonds make up a third of Botswana’s revenue and lead its exports, but a prolonged drop in global demand since mid-2023 has forced the government to raise its budget deficit forecast to 9% of GDP — the highest since the pandemic. The downturn has also led to a 3% contraction in the economy this year.

With foreign reserves under pressure, officials plan to cut costs by trimming the government vehicle fleet and curbing travel. They’re also moving to boost revenue through stricter tax enforcement and a new digital transaction levy set to launch in September.

Despite fiscal stress, Gaolathe said Botswana is reluctant to seek financing on international markets, preferring concessional loans. “Let’s borrow where it’s cheapest,” he said.

Bigger De Beers stake

The diamond downturn has also accelerated changes in the industry. Anglo American (LON: AAL), which owns 85% of De Beers, has been seeking a buyer for the iconic diamond company. Botswana, which holds the remaining 15% and is De Beers’ primary diamond source, says it wants a greater say in the sale.

“We are very confident that partners are coming forward,” Gaolathe told Bloomberg, noting interest from countries, funds and companies with “deep interest” in the industry. Botswana wants any new owner to be financially strong and committed to the diamond business long-term — and said it is open to increasing its stake to as much as 50%.

The government and De Beers recently signed a 10-year deal to fund global marketing aimed at reviving demand for natural diamonds, which have been losing ground to lab-grown alternatives. New US tariffs on Botswana’s diamonds have since added uncertainty to any near-term rebound.

“High tariffs on our diamonds will have a deleterious effect on us,” Gaolathe warned. The Bank of Botswana expects only a “muted recovery” this year.

The world’s largest copper producer slightly recovered last year from a quarter-century production low, and is aiming to increase its output once more this year.

Pacheco told an annual shareholders meeting on Tuesday that demand is strong for the red metal, even as he acknowledged geopolitical tensions associated with access to critical minerals.

“The market looks good, it looks very strong in Asia, in China, in the United States, in Brazil,” he said.

Codelco previously said uncertainty around US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration had prompted more copper shipments to the United States. He also noted that he was seeing more demand from China in the second quarter.

Pacheco said he has been working to promote the construction of a new copper smelter in Chile, and that Codelco has offered to supply 1.2 million tons of copper annually in a 20-30 year contract as an incentive to investors.

Pacheco also discussed Codelco’s efforts to enter the lithium business in Chile, which is the world’s second biggest producer of the battery metal.

Pacheco said he is optimistic about securing the approval of China regulators for a joint venture with lithium producer SQM at the Atacama salt flat, although he said the timeline is unclear.

China is the last country whose regulatory approval is needed for the partnership, which will mark the Chilean state’s entry into lithium production.

Codelco has already done its part to provide China with all required materials about the planned operation, Pacheco said.

Codelco also aims to enter the lithium business with a new project in Chile’s Maricunga salt flat. Pacheco said a partner will be named within the coming weeks or months, after Codelco received binding offers from global companies in March.

(By Fabian Cambero and Daina Beth Solomon; Editing by Alexander Villegas and Daniel Wallis)

McEwen Copper Inc. is planning an IPO in New York or Toronto to help fund construction of its Los Azules project in San Juan province. As part of that process, the company is thinking about a listing in Buenos Aires, he said.

“It’d be good to have a marker in the country,” McEwen said in an interview Tuesday. “It’d give Argentina an opportunity to invest in one of the first new copper mines.”

Once a pariah for foreign investors because of capital controls and state intervention, Argentina is regaining the confidence of mining companies as President Javier Milei offers a way to bulletproof their capital commitments. His government’s RIGI program of tax, currency and trade benefits will help add an estimated $900 million to the value of Los Azules, McEwen said.

To be sure, RIGI approval is taking longer than expected, meaning the timing of the IPO — which was penciled in for mid-2025 — is uncertain, although it could still happen by the end of the year, McEwen said.

The company wants to include RIGI’s benefits in a feasibility study, which should be ready by early July, he said. In the meantime, the copper unit is looking to raise more money privately to help cover another $25 million for the feasibility study and some exploration and as much as $100 million-plus for engineering work.

If all goes to plan, construction will begin late next year and the mine will start producing by the end of the decade, when the wiring metal market is forecast to be in short supply. Los Azules is one of a cluster of copper deposits in San Juan that has attracted global heavyweights including BHP Group Ltd. and Glencore Plc.

“Today, Argentina is a totally different country in terms of restrictions on capital,” McEwen said. “Time will tell on how long that lasts. But at the moment it’s very welcoming.”

(By James Attwood)

In a press release Monday, Azimut announced that Centerra is buying 9.43 million shares of the company at C$0.60 per share, for a total approximate investment of C$5.65 million. At the time of announcement, Azimut’s shares traded at $0.56 apiece.

The private placement would result in Centerra holding 9.9% of Azimut, which has a market capitalization of roughly C$47 million. By comparison, Centerra’s market capitalization is estimated at C$1.9 billion.

The equity investment represents the second of its kind made by Centerra in recent days. Last week, the Canadian gold miner announced it bought 9.9% of British Columbia-focused Thesis Gold (TSXV: TAU). In late 2024, Centerra also acquired a 9.9% stake in Dryden Gold (TSXV: DRY), whose focus is in northwestern Ontario.

Quebec exploration

The funds will be used by Azimut to advance several of its greenfield properties in Quebec. Its flagship project is the Elmer gold project, which is at the resource stage with 311,200 oz. indicated and 513,900 oz. inferred. Work is currently underway to expand the gold mineralization that has been defined over a strike length of 600 metres.

The company is also advancing the Galinée lithium discovery next to Winsome Resources’ Adina deposit under a joint venture with SOQUEM. It has also made significant exploration progress on the Wabamisk (antimony-gold, lithium), Kukamas (nickel-copper-PGE) and Pilipas (lithium) projects.

Azimut generates its exploration targets using big data analytics, enhanced by over 15 years of in-house field validation with over 500 new mineral prospects discovered across the province. 

The price forecast is one of the most bullish yet as banks and others move to increase their own estimates after gold hit a record high just above $3,500 last week. Deutsche Bank, for one, expects bullion to hit $3,700 an ounce by next year.

Already the largest shareholder in Idaho gold and antimony developer Perpetua Resources, Paulson last week bought a 40% stake in NovaGold’s Donlin gold project in Alaska from Barrick.

Asked where he expects bullion prices to head, Paulson cited a recent estimate put to him for levels at the “high $4,000 range” within three years.

“It’s a well-informed prediction. I think that’s a reasonable number,” Paulson said.

“As central banks and people look to put their money in a more stable source… I think gold will increase its position in the world,” he added.

The New York-based investor cited Western confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserve holdings after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine as a catalyst for the world’s central banks – especially China’s – to pile into gold.

“When the war started, (Russia) kept their physical gold, that was safe, but all their cash – the paper reserves – were confiscated,” Paulson said.

“So that caused other central banks to wake up and say … ‘What happens if there’s a conflict with the US? Could the US keep our treasuries, and all our savings would disappear?'” Paulson said.

He added that he sees global trade uncertainty, fueled in part by Washington’s tariffs, as further underpinning gold.

“The best place to go if your faith in the (US) dollar diminishes is gold as a reserve currency,” said Paulson, who was considered for a role in US President Donald Trump’s second-term cabinet.

Paulson declined to discuss details of conversations with Trump, but said the president has been “very pro on America first and the golden age of America, and bringing manufacturing and mining back to America.”

Mines

Paulson, who has long invested in gold, said he has no interest in expanding into copper or other metals. “Other minerals are a whole different world, so we’re concentrating our efforts in gold,” he said.

In Idaho, Paulson is the largest shareholder in Perpetua, which received its federal mining permit in January, is applying for funding from the US Export-Import Bank, and has received support from Trump’s White House.

Perpetua’s gold production is seen as financially buttressing the mine’s antimony production and ensuring a domestic supply of the metal – used in bullets and other weaponry – for the Pentagon. China has blocked antimony exports to the US.

Perpetua is working with Sunshine Silver & Refining – backed by metals investor Thomas Kaplan’s Electrum Group – to build an antimony refinery. Sunshine holds permits to build such a refinery, which would supply 40% of the nation’s needs.

“It’s a very well-established (refining) process,” said Kaplan. “We’re just upgrading it and putting it back into production.” In Alaska, the Donlin project has federal permits and Paulson said should have operating costs around $1,000 an ounce, far below current gold prices.

Paulson and Electrum are also invested in International Tower Hill, which is developing an Alaska gold mine, as well as Trilogy Metals, which aims to develop projects in Alaska’s Ambler district.

(By Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Veronica Brown and Jan Harvey)

In its latest report, Sprott notes that uranium prices have stabilized near $65/lb following a correction driven not by weakening fundamentals, but by a pause in utility contracting. Buyers have been waiting for clarity on US tariffs and potential trade restrictions on Russian enriched uranium.

Some of that uncertainty began to clear in early April, helping steady the spot market. Sprott maintains that uranium’s decline reflects macro sentiment and technical selling—not a reversal in the commodity’s structural outlook.

“Despite market pressures, uranium’s term price remains stable at $80/lb and global supply is constrained below demand levels,” the firm said.

Resilience amid volatility

While broader equity and commodity markets have seen volatility in recent months, uranium has shown relative stability.

In early April, it remained uncorrelated with other risk assets—holding firm even as equities sold off, bond markets wobbled, and volatility spiked.

Uranium and uranium equities have outperformed other commodities and global equities over the past five years, driven by a deepening supply deficit and growing global policy support. That trend, Sprott argues, is far from over.

Supply lags demand

Supply constraints remain a central part of the bullish case. Few new uranium projects are advancing, and some juniors—like NexGen, Deep Yellow, and Paladin—have delayed development. Kazatomprom has also guided production toward the lower end of its outlook amid cost and input challenges.

In Australia, heavily shorted producers such as Paladin and Boss Energy have come under pressure, but Sprott believes short positioning in uranium equities is out of sync with underlying market dynamics. “This wave of equity weakness is a sentiment story, not a structural one,” the report reads.

On the demand side, China continues to expand its nuclear fleet, and the US—backed by bipartisan support—has reaffirmed its commitment to nuclear power as a strategic asset. Tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Meta are also pushing for an ambitious tripling of global nuclear power capacity by 2050 to meet growing baseload energy needs.

Sprott expects the next leg of the uranium bull cycle to begin as utilities return to the market and long-term contracting resumes. With global uranium production still well below reactor requirements and long timelines for new supply to come online, the firm sees a structurally tight market for years to come.

Fast-tracking approvals

Carney’s administration plans to establish a “Major Federal Project Office” with a “one project, one review” mandate. This initiative aims to streamline environmental assessments by eliminating duplication between federal and provincial processes, thereby accelerating the approval of mining projects. Such a move is poised to benefit companies involved in critical mineral extraction, including lithium, nickel, and cobalt, by reducing bureaucratic delays.

Carney has not provided clarity on how the consent process would be expedited to meet the timeline pressures of energy and infrastructure development. This ambiguity is notable, particularly as his promise to avoid forcing projects through appears to contradict his assurances that major projects will proceed swiftly. Past provincial experiences, such as B.C.’s attempts to expedite development under similar consent commitments, suggest that balancing these priorities is fraught with legal and political difficulty.

Carney’s approach implies an acknowledgment of a de facto Indigenous veto over resource projects—but rather than confronting this head-on, he proposes to “buy in” Indigenous participation through public financing mechanisms. This creates a practical route around a hard veto by offering Indigenous communities ownership stakes that align their interests with project success.

Reconciling the urgency of certain projects with the potentially time-consuming process of obtaining consent from multiple Indigenous nations will prove tricky. It begs the question of whether or not this model serves the public interest.

On one hand, it represents a constructive shift from conflict to partnership, promoting reconciliation and potentially leading to more stable and inclusive development. It avoids the legal and ethical risks associated with imposing projects on unwilling nations. On the other hand, it raises questions about the use of taxpayer-backed funds as a means of securing project approval. There is a risk that such financing becomes a permanent cost of doing business, even for projects that may not deliver strong returns to the public.

Whether this is sustainable or fair depends on how transparent and equitable the resulting arrangements are — and whether public funds are being used to create true partnerships or merely to neutralize opposition.

Investment in critical minerals

The Carney-led government plans to invest in the development of critical minerals by: 

• Connecting critical mineral projects to supply chains via the new First and Last Mile Fund (FLMF), enhancing integration within the Canadian economy;
• Supporting clean energy and critical minerals projects through the FLMF to reduce reliance on other countries and protect Canadian jobs;
• Accelerating exploration and extraction, including from recycling, by investing in prospecting activities and 
• Attracting and de-risking investment in critical mineral exploration and extraction through additional investments and expanded tax credits. 

US tariffs

In response to US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian imports, Carney has pledged a firm stance. His administration plans to invest billions to reduce Canada’s economic dependence on the southern neighbour, including a $2 billion strategic response fund to protect Canadian workers and fortify the auto supply chain.

This shift towards trade diversification and economic resilience is likely to open new markets for Canadian mining exports, particularly in Asia and Europe, thereby reducing vulnerability to US trade policies.

Energy superpower

Mark Carney’s campaign message on energy, echoing Stephen Harper’s “energy superpower” mantra, signals a sweeping ambition — but with a broader, more climate-conscious twist. In his election night speech, Carney declared it was “time to build Canada into an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy” and pushed for an industrial strategy that boosts competitiveness while addressing climate change.

Now leading a Liberal government, Carney faces the challenge of balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility. His platform includes plans for national “energy corridors” designed to fast-track approvals for infrastructure such as pipelines and transmission lines. He has also pledged to streamline regulatory processes to reduce delays that have long hindered energy and resource development.

Carney supports carbon capture and storage technology, a key strategy for the oil and gas sector to reduce emissions. His promise of federal backing extends to major infrastructure and extraction efforts, notably the Ring of Fire in northern Ontario. The region is rich in critical minerals essential for electric vehicles, batteries and other technologies vital to a low-carbon economy.

Some First Nations groups with claims in the area oppose development, which could take a decade to implement judging by other projects. Environmentalists say it will release the same global warming gases from the region’s muskeg that the electric-battery vehicle metals it would produce are supposed to limit.

Canada’s elected Prime Minister has also committed to advancing transportation and energy projects in the Arctic, paired with a planned expansion of the country’s military presence in the region.

Environmental commitments

While promoting mining development, Carney’s administration also maintains environmental commitments, such as upholding the industrial carbon tax and imposing caps on oil and gas emissions. This approach aims to ensure that mining growth aligns with Canada’s climate goals. 

Despite facing challenges such as taxation, immigration and political influences, including Trump’s rhetoric, Canada’s natural resource development was a common topic brought up by the two main political parties.

Carney’s recent victory signals a proactive approach to strengthening Canada’s mining industry, a significant contributor to the country’s economy. The sector accounted for nearly 20% of the country’s gross domestic product in 2022, alongside C$422 billion ($305 billion) in exports.

The Yangshan premium — named after a key Shanghai trade terminal — jumped from a low of $35 a ton in late February to $94 on Tuesday, according to data from researcher Shanghai Metals Market.

The premium is paid by buyers on top of exchange prices for imported copper, and the sharp rebound reflects tightness in the market as trade tensions persist. Traders in China have reported a burst of strong domestic demand, and stockpiles in Chinese warehouses have plunged in recent weeks.

“The continuous destocking in the Shanghai region has kept Shanghai spot copper premiums firm,” ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. wrote in a note.

The threat of copper-specific tariffs has encouraged a large flow of metal to the US ahead of any duties, tightening markets elsewhere and spurring more competition for the industrial metal.

On the London Metal Exchange, copper has rebounded since its collapse during the wider market turmoil that followed US President Donald Trump’s unveiling of sweeping tariffs at the start of the month. The metal sank to its lowest in a year, triggering a wave of buying from China that helped lift prices.

LME copper rose 0.7% to settle at $9,440 a ton at 5:50 p.m. in London. Other LME metals were mixed, with aluminum rising 1.3% and nickel falling 0.4%.

Read More: Global copper processing controlled by a familiar few

Both metals are expected to be in supply surplus this year, a turnaround for zinc but the third consecutive year of over-supply for the lead market.

The two metals are geological sisters, as they tend to be sourced from the same mines. Right now, they are also bound by weak demand.

ILZSG, which has just met for one of its twice-yearly catch-ups, estimates both metals experienced falling usage in 2024 and the group is forecasting only a modest recovery this year.

Zinc loses its shine

Zinc has under-performed the rest of the London Metal Exchange base metals pack so far this year.

After sliding to a one-year low of $2,515.50 per metric ton earlier this month, LME three-month zinc has since recovered to $2,636.00, but is still down by 11% on the start of January.

Fund managers have cut long positions and scaled up bearish bets into the recent price weakness. The collective net long has shrunk from almost 41,000 contracts in the middle of March to just 1,781.

Zinc market dynamics did not turn out as expected last year, a third year of falling mine production restraining metal output and pulling the market into a small 15,000-ton deficit.

That will turn to a 93,000-ton surplus this year, according to ILZSG.

Global mine output is forecast to grow by a robust 4.3% year-on-year, feeding a 1.8% rise in refined metal production.

There are signs this turnaround is already happening. Spot smelter treatment charges have bounced higher from last year’s record lows, signalling improved availability of mined concentrate.

Chinese smelters have pounced on the extra supply with first-quarter imports of zinc concentrates up by 37% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

However, zinc demand will not be enough to absorb the extra supply. ILZSG is forecasting usage to rise by just 1.0% in 2025, a significant downgrade from the 1.6% rate expected at the Group’s September 2024 meet.

Zinc’s problem is that 55% of global demand comes in the form of galvanized steel for construction, a sector that is weak everywhere, not least in China.

Moreover, the group said even its modest forecast growth rate may be optimistic if global economic growth slows “due to uncertainties linked to trade policy”.

More weight for heavy metal

Lead’s demand profile is quite different from that of its sister metal with automotive batteries accounting for 65% of total usage and replacement demand accounting for around 75% of that.

Weak automotive sales and an underlying shift towards electric vehicles, which use smaller lead-acid batteries than internal combustion cars, combined to drag global lead demand down by 0.8% last year.

ILZSG is expecting a return to 1.5% growth in 2025 on the back of stronger passenger car production in the West and China.

But refined production will rise by a faster 1.9%, generating an expected 82,000-ton supply surplus. The lift in mined zinc output this year will inevitably mean more lead and ILZSG forecasts mined lead supply will grow by 2.3% in 2025.

A forecast third year of lead over-supply will reinforce funds’ bear positioning in the LME market.

Investors were net short of LME lead to the tune of a record 25,700 contracts in January.

Many got burned as LME three-month metal rose to $2,100 per ton in March but the early-April collapse to a two-and-a-half year low of $1,837.50 has seen the bears return. The net short has grown back to over 23,000 contracts.

Shrinking premium

The lead price has proved surprisingly resilient given conspicuous surplus in the form of elevated exchange inventory. LME three-month metal is trading marginally up on the start of January.

That has shifted the relative-value trade between the sister metals with zinc’s premium over lead contracting from over $1,000 per ton in December to $668.

With so much lead demand coming from replacement batteries, the heavy metal is less vulnerable to the sort of macro turbulence highlighted by the ILZSG in its zinc forecasts.

Moreover, funds are already so bearish on lead’s price prospects, it’s hard to see how much more selling they can muster.

Zinc, by contrast, is a market in supply transition and funds have only started turning bearish as evidence of that shift in dynamics accumulates.

Just how more bearish they could become remains to be seen.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Barbara Lewis)

On Monday, Melbourne-based boutique fund Datt Capital, which holds a major stake in Koonenberry, went public with its concerns over the composition of Koonenberry’s board and proposed incentives to be issued to directors.

Datt chief investment officer Emanuel Datt told MINING.com it had first engaged with Koonenberry about six weeks ago over the nomination of a Datt representative to the Koonenberry board.

“They were very much opposed to any sort of board change,” he said.

“It made us think, well, we own over 10% of the company, we’re in a fairly strong position. We’d like a nominee on the board, but if we need to go through a formal shareholder, process, we’ll be going for two seats rather than just one.”

Datt then formally moved resolutions under section 203D of the Australian Corporations Act, calling for the removal of non-executive directors Darren Glover and George Rogers.

Rogers was a co-founder of Koonenberry, while Glover joined the board last year after selling the company its Lachlan project.

Datt said neither had public company experience or a track record of value creation.

“Ultimately, the board in its present incarnation, it’s fine if it’s a micro-cap company, and when the operations are still fairly speculative,” he said. 

However, shares in Koonenberry are up by around 200% year-to-date, including almost 70% in April, following exploration success at its Enmore project in New South Wales.

It started the week with a market capitalization of around A$70 million ($45 million).

“This looks like it could be a very real major gold discovery, and effectively, that’s when you’ve got to start preparing for the company’s evolution,” Datt said. 

“We’re really of the belief that you’ve got to have the right sort of experience and expertise around the board table to guide the company towards that outcome of maximising shareholder value in the medium term.”

Datt is proposing the appointment of Datt partner Tony Gu as its board representative and geologist and former IGO (ASX: IGO) exploration manager Tim Kennedy as an independent non-executive director.

Remuneration objections

Koonenberry was criticized for not disclosing Datt’s proposed board changes to the ASX and instead, announcing a new incentive package for directors on April 10.

The incentives included the issue of performance rights to employees if the company reported single drill intercepts of at least 20 gram metres and 50 gram metres of gold and the company achieving a volume-weighted average share price (VWAP) of at least A3.75c for 10 consecutive days.

Managing director Dan Power is set to receive roughly 2 million performance rights for achieving at least one 20 gram metre gold hit and at least one 50 gram metre gold hit.

Datt estimates the package could result in a potential A$5.4 million dilution to shareholder value, assuming a A20c share price, and could dilute existing shareholders by almost 6%.

Datt would prefer to see vesting conditions based on tangible metrics, such as JORC gold resource quantities, combined with a 30-day VWAP metric.

“I don’t think what we’re proposing is controversial in any way, shape or form,” he said. 

“I really think it’s just a situation where the incumbent board are very tight and cosy and are obviously granting themselves pretty rich performance right schemes with very low vesting conditions.”

Datt said the company’s move had received support from other Koonenberry shareholders.

“That has been from smaller investors, or even medium-sized investors, that are just tired of companies taking too many liberties. It’s like correcting your own homework.”

Emerging discovery

Koonenberry listed on the ASX in late 2021 with a focus on its namesake project in New South Wales.

Shares drifted lower in the years after listing due to limited exploration success and in October 2024, Koonenberry acquired a package of new projects in NSW, which included two joint ventures with Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM).

Newmont has acquired 80% of the Junee project, with Koonenberry free carried to commercial production, while Newmont can earn up to 80% of the Fairholme project by spending A$5 million on exploration.

While Newmont has been drilling both projects this year, Koonenberry has had the most success at its 100%-owned Enmore project.

Enmore is just 20km south of the Hillgrove gold-antimony project, a historical mine which is currently being redeveloped by Larvotto Resources (ASX: LRV).

Earlier this month, shares in Koonenberry surged by as much as 40% after it reported a hit of 170m at 1.75 grams per tonne gold (g/t) from 77m, including 18m at 9.95g/t gold from the first hole at the Sunnyside prospect.

It followed that up with 172.9m at 2.07g/t gold in the second hole, and today, reported 102m at 1.10g/t gold in the third hole.

The company’s other major shareholders are fellow Melbourne-based funds Lion Selection Group (ASX: LSX) and Lowell Resources Fund (ASX: LRT).

Koonenberry did not respond to a request for comment, but in the statement released Monday, it said it was considering the validity of Datt’s notices.

Meanwhile, Datt spent A$831,609 purchasing Koonenberry shares on market yesterday to take its stake in the company from 11.3% to 12.8%.

The construction and mining equipment business is expected to suffer an annual negative impact of 140 billion yen ($976 million) from increased costs linked to US tariffs, it said in a filing. The impact for the fiscal ending in March 2026 will be a negative 78 billion yen when factoring in its inventory.

The North American market accounted for 25% of overall revenue last fiscal year. The company has five months’ worth of inventory at the moment, Imayoshi said at a briefing on Monday. Komatsu makes about half of its products for the US in Japan and China. The impact of retaliatory tariffs by China is factored into the forecast.

“Resilient demand for mining equipment can support earnings, while price hikes and US support for coal could add to factors that offset tariff impact,” Bloomberg Intelligence said.

The world’s second-largest supplier of construction and mining equipment behind Caterpillar Inc. said fourth-quarter operating profit rose 24%, beating analyst estimates. The company announced a share buyback of as much as 100 billion yen.

(By Reina Sasaki)